The Open at Royal Liverpool 2023
Overview
Dates: July 20, 2023 to July 23, 2023
Location: Merseyside, England
Course: Royal Liverpool
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7313
Prize Purse: $16500000
Formgolfer & ESPN’s Open 2023 (Royal Liverpool) Digital TV preview.
It’s hard to believe that the final major of 2023 is upon us already. Royal Liverpool is the venue and the last two champions here, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy, strongly suggest that it’s a course that can be expected to throw up a worthy winner of the Claret Jug. After his incredible finish to cruelly snatch the Scottish Open from the hands of Robert MacIntyre, Rory will go off a warm favourite to repeat his win of 2014.
Preview
Outrights
Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
Tyrrell Hatton | 4 | Each Way | 22/1 | 12 | +2500 |
Cameron Smith | 5 | Each Way | 16/1 | 12 | +1800 |
Wyndham Clark | 3 | Each Way | 45/1 | 10 | +600 |
Robert MacIntyre | 2 | Each Way | 60/1 | 12 | +9000 |
Ryan Fox | 2 | Each Way | 80/1 | 12 | +12500 |
Thorbjorn Olesen | 1.5 | Each Way | 250/1 | 10 | +35000 |
Our headline pick is someone we’ve had in mind for this for some time, in the shape of golf’s angriest man, Tyrrell Hatton (4 points each way, 22/1, 12 places). We’ve tipped him several times recently and his consistent run of form shows no sign of abating. Despite finishing several shots off the winning mark, he should arguably have won the Scottish Open last week, with his putter uncharacteristically letting him down on numerous short putts over the four days. He continues to let his frustrations get the better of him at times, but he still rates as one of the likeliest winners on our analysis. Few in this field can boast the level of links form that he brings to the table, as a multiple winner of the Dunhill Links and with 12 top 20s in his last 16 links tournaments he rates a confident pick to be in the mix again.
Cameron Smith (5 points each way, 16/1, 12 places) sits too far behind McIlroy and Scheffler in the market and rates a strong fancy to make a good defence of the title he won at St. Andrews in 2022. While this year’s event is unlikely to become the putting contest that it turned into last year, Smith’s ability on and around the greens is second to none and he can be fully expected to thrive on the tricky green complexes of Royal Liverpool. Having posted top 10s in the US PGA and US Open, and a recent LIV victory, he is clearly in fine form and has been making encouraging noises about his prospects of a successful defence. He jumps out as the best value proposition from the top of the market.
Wyndham Clark (3 points each way, 45/1, 10 places) is still under-rated and continues to offer value in the market. It’s that simple. Now ranked 10th in the world after his US Open win, there are a bunch of players behind him in the world rankings, the FedEx cup list and in general form who are a shorter price and we can’t understand why he’s not sitting alongside (or ahead of) the likes of Fleetwood, Lowry, Fowler and Spieth. Admittedly he doesn’t have the links pedigree of some of those players, but he put in a fine performance in the Scottish Open and let’s not forget that Collin Morikawa learned enough from his (dreadful) warm up in the same event to be able to take down the Open the following week. At the price, we can’t leave one of the emerging stars of 2023 off the staking plan.
Robert MacIntyre (2 points each way, 60/1, 12 places) on the other hand is turning into a links specialist and added to his two Open top 10s with a second place finish in the Scottish Open. He must still be wondering how his incredible birdie finish wasn’t quite enough to get the job done, but must be going into this week full of confidence in another big showing. His overall form doesn’t make him jump out as a likely winner, but some of his best weeks have been in majors (also has a Masters top 10 on his CV) so he can be fancied to step up on his general form at the big events. With a place in the European Ryder Cup side firmly on his mind, this represents a great opportunity for him to all but seal his place in Luke Donald’s team for Rome later this year.
We’ll finish up with two wildcards who would be surprise winners but certainly have the game to make a decent run at the top 10. Ryan Fox (1.5 points each way, 80/1, 12 places) has improved out of all recognition in the last two seasons and is now established as a top 50 player. The winner of the Dunhill Links in 2022 and with a top 20 in the 2019 Open, he’s very comfortable in tricky links conditions. Without ever getting fully into contention, he quietly snuck into the top 15 in the Scottish Open and it’s easy to see him doing something similar this week.
Finally, we have another DP Tour member with some links success in the shape of Thorbjorn Olesen (1 point each way, 2501/, 10 places), who like Fox has a Dunhill Links win on his record along with a couple of Open top 15 finishes. Some of this form is fairly dated, but having experienced several quiet years since, in the last 18 months or so he’s rediscovered something like his best form. It’d be hard to see him winning an event of this magnitude, but he could quite plausibly make the top 30 or so and at a huge price is worth a small investment; he certainly makes the most appeal of those at that end of the market.
Other Recommendations
Others who came close to making the staking plan were Viktor Hovland (as usual, chipping frailties were enough to put us off, although that’s not stopped him performing well in The Open before), Nicolai Hojgaard and Cameron Young. And we wouldn’t put anyone off Scottie Scheffler, who looks cast iron to make yet another top 10 at the very least and is some way clear of anyone else in the world in terms of tee-to-green performance. When he finally has an average or better week with the putter, he will surely put clear daylight between himself and whoever else happens to be in the field