Summary Performance (all selections for tournaments completed 1/1/22 to 30/6/22)
|Total Stakes||Total Return||Total Profit||ROI|
Our first full half year has without doubt gone better than we could reasonably have hoped for, with an overall profit of 133 points across all selections and a fabulous 289 points when focusing on outright tips only. We started this service with a belief that a long term return on investment in excess of 10% was a realistic target, and nothing we’ve seen since has diminished our belief that this is achievable.
The most obvious learning point from early 2022 has been that our performance has been vastly better in the outright market. As a relatively new service, we are still learning. We wanted to track this over at least 3 months to establish whether it was a pattern, and you may have noticed that in recent weeks we’ve ceased providing match up recommendations and greatly reduced our selections in other markets. It makes sense to focus where we are strongest and we believe this will boost our returns in the long run. If we can keep anywhere near to the 50% plus we’ve achieved on outrights so far this year, we’ll be providing a service that even to modest stakes will deliver nice profits to our followers.
In 25 weeks of tournament play this year, we’ve already bagged four winners at huge prices. In order to find value, we try to avoid the obvious, which means winners may be less frequent, but when they arrive they are worth waiting for. It arguably should have been five, but for Daniel Berger giving up a five shot lead in final round of the Honda Classic. The Farmers was my personal favourite week so far, with two of our selections, Luke List and Will Zalatoris going head-to-head up the stretch and delivering us a 1-2. Even better was that Luke List took the playoff, giving us the bigger return that we were really hoping for.
- Cameron Smith, Sentry Tournament of Champions WON 22/1
- Luke List, Farmers WON 80/1
- Tom Hoge, AT&T Invitational WON 60/1
- Billy Horschel, The Memorial WON 60/1
Beyond the winners, big-priced players who made the places for us include:
- Seamus Power, Sony Open, PLACED 45/1
- Beau Hossler, Valero Texas Open, PLACED 125/1
- Corey Conners, The Masters, PLACED 55/1
- Sepp Straka, RBC Heritage, PLACED 90/1
- Matt Kuchar, RBC Heritage, PLACED 50/1
- Cameron Young, Wells Fargo, PLACED 40/1
- Cameron Young, US PGA, PLACED 66/1
There have of course been disappointments along the way too. Having delivered profits in each of the first two majors of the year, the US Open was a washout, although the thrilling climax as Matt Fitzpatrick held off Will Zalatoris and Scottie Scheffler to take his first major somewhat made up for the lack of financial interest in the finish.
We’ve had 3 weeks from 25 with zero returns. This will happen, and probably more so as we focus our attention primarily on the outright market, where returns will inevitably be more volatile than some of the safter markets.
Looking just at the outright markets, we’ve had 8 winning and 17 losing weeks so far this year, but the winning weeks have handsomely covered any losses. With 150-or-so competitors and typically only 5 or 6 selections, it’s inevitable that there will be more losing weeks than winning ones. It seems reasonable for us to aim at roughly 30% as the likelihood of being in profit in any given week – a figure which should deliver a high positive return on investment in the long run.
We hope you have enjoyed our previews so far and have made a little (or even a lot of) money along the way. Thanks for following us!
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