The Masters 2024

Outrights

The key question to answer here is whether Scottie Scheffler (12 points win, 4/1) offers value or not, and as the recommended stake indicates, our view is that he does. Augusta quite simply suits him perfectly and we expect him to become a multiple champion here. His strokes gained stats in the past 12-18 months are starting to rival those of Tiger Woods at his very best; which is simply astonishing. Right now there is a huge gulf between his game and that of anyone else on tour, and Augusta is the perfect place for him to demonstrate his superiority. When Tiger was in his prime, he was going off between 6/4 and 2/1 for the Masters, so we are very happy to get involved at double that price, despite the fact that he’s not yet quite converted as many opportunities into wins as Woods did. His putting, although improved, remains his biggest weakness, but that really isn’t a concern for us here and we can see him putting distance between himself and everyone else.
While we fully expect Scheffler to win, and win comfortably, there are several others that we’re keen to have onside. Top of that list is Joaquin Niemann (2.5pts each way, 22/1, 10 places), who is comfortably the hottest player on the LIV Tour in recent times and deserves to be closer in price to the likes of Rahm and Koepka than he is in the market. Having now had three visits to Augusta (and slowly improved his finishing position each time), he comes here in red hot form and can be strongly fancied to finish top 10 here at the very least.
Top of the course specialists list is Jordan Spieth (3pts each way, 18/1, 10 places), whose creativity comes to the fore here and his love for the place makes it highly likely that he will step up on his recent form, which has been decent enough without really threatening to win. He’s an obvious enough pick, but there’s just enough in his price to feel that he represents a bit of value.
Corey Conners (2pts each way, 66/1, 8 places) ticks the course form box pretty nicely and has tee-to-green stats that stack up very nicely. Third in the field for SG approach and top 15 off-the-tee makes for good reading here and this is reflected in his recent form, with four top 25 finishes from his last five outings. With putting at less of a premium and having quickly formed an affinity with Augusta, the price on offer looks more than fair.
Shane Lowry (2pts each way, 40/1, 8 places) has now posted four consecutive top 25 finishes in the Masters, so is clearly building a good relationship with Augusta, and with his 2024 form including two top 5s and a further two top 30 finishes, he comes here in arguably better nick than in recent years. While much is made in commentary of his short game ability, this simply isn’t borne out in the stats – he gains his ground tee-to-green and this should enable him to be very competitive here again. It might be a bit much to expect him to take down some of the bigger names, but we expect to see him threatening the first page of the leaderboard over the weekend.
Finally, we feel that the best value amongst the longshots lies with Russell Henley (1.5pts each way, 50/1, 10 places), whose course form has perhaps been slightly overlooked by the market. In six consecutive trips to Augusta, he’s made the cut every time and finished no worse than T31 over that period, with T4 last year his best result to date. He’s been gaining ground across all four strokes gained categories over the last six months, so is another who comes here in decent shape. Again it may be fanciful to think he can win one of these, but he looks highly likely to make the weekend and another high placed finish certainly isn’t out of the question.

Other Recommendations

For a bit of fun for Masters enthusiasts we have pulled together 3 rank outsiders and 2 notables to keep an eye on, don’t break the bank just to add to your Masters weekend experience. They are not on our staking plan and therefore will not count towards our yearly figures.

1. Nick Taylor: it seems a little crazy a 2 time winner in the last 6 months could be priced at 150-200/1 but he is. I wouldn’t discourage you from a small flutter to place.
2. Phil Mickleson(200/1 top 8) The 3 time Masters winner has shown little form this year enjoying his huge payout from LIV but the same could have been said for last year where he surprised everyone with a T2 @ 300/1.
3. Bubba Watson (275/1 top 8): Again the owner of 2 green jackets has shown zero form but course knowledge counts at Augusta. Like Mickleson, it is an advantage being a leftie.
You may want to consider reduced odds for top 12/20.

Finally,

If you are all in this year at the Masters, I would not dissuade you against a small flutter on Willy Z (40/1) & Brookes (22/1) to place. The latter was T2 with Phil last year and in his first appearance in the 2021 Masters, Will Zalatoris finished 2nd behind the winner Hideki Matsuyama and T6 the year after before a back operation took him out of the game for over 12 months.