The American Express Championship
Overview
Dates: January 18, 2024 to January 21, 2024
Location: La Quinta, California
Course: Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club & The Nicklaus Tournament Course
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7187, 7060, 7159
Prize Purse: $8400000
After longshot winners of the first two events of 2024, a strong field tee it up at the AmEx, with ten of the world’s top 25 taking part, including number 1 Scottie Scheffler. A rotation of three courses is in use, with none of them weighing in over 7200 yards and some seriously low scoring in prospect – several 59s have been shot in this event in previous years. Justin Thomas makes his first appearance of the year, while Daniel Berger returns from injury for his first start in a year-and-a-half.
Preview
This event looks set to turn into a shootout, with scores of well into the 20s under par likely to be required for a top 5 finish. The roll of honour is varied, with a couple of victories for Jon Rahm interspersed with some much-less heralded names such as Andrew Landry, Adam Long and Hudson Swafford. So we’ll be keeping an eye on lively outsiders. Favourite Scheffler is readily enough left alone, having disappointingly shown that his putting frailties are far from behind him in the Sentry a couple of weeks back.
Accuracy off the tee and strokes gained approach look to be our key indicators of success here, while the putter will need to be at least warm to hole enough birdies to compile a winning score.
Outrights
Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
Adam Hadwin | 2.5 | Each Way | 50/1 | 8 | +5000 |
SungJae Im | 3.5 | Each Way | 18/1 | 8 | +1800 |
JT Poston | 2.5 | Each Way | 30/1 | 8 | +3000 |
Ben Kohles | 1 | Each Way | 150/1 | 8 | +15000 |
Taylor Pendrith | 2 | Each Way | 80/1 | 8 | +8000 |
Adam Hadwin (2.5pts each way, 50/1, 8 places) ticks plenty of boxes for us this week as a guy with a smart record in this event (three top fives and a further top 20 since 2017), decent recent form and stats that shape up well against our ideal profile. The price is more than fair, so he goes straight onto the staking plan with a very straightforward case to be made for his chances.
Sungjae Im (3.5pts each way, 18/1, 8 places) sits in the top 5 in the field for strokes gained approach and putting over the last 3 months, having shown a notable return towards his very best during that period, with four top 15 finishes in his last five starts. He’s also shown previous in the AmEx and looks to be a very solid proposition from those at the front of the market.
JT Poston (2.5pts each way, 30/1, 8 places) is another whose profile fits the bill very nicely indeed, leading the field in putting over the last six months and showing some stellar approach play also during that time. His weakness is off the tee, but even that part of his game has shown a small improvement of late, which has helped him rack up three top 10s from his last 5; this could easily be the week he converts the win that looks to be just round the corner.
Ben Kohles (1pt each way, 150/1, 8 places) is a recent Korn Ferry graduate, but looks to be taking the step up to the main tour in his stride – a top 5 in the RSM being the highlight. He’s been posting some impressive numbers in terms of accuracy from the tee, approach and putting, which bodes well for his chances here. He doesn’t yet seem to have been fully found in the market, so we’ll take a punt on him while the odds are in our favour.
Finally, we’ll give a chance to Taylor Pendrith (2pts each way, 80/1, 8 places). Despite being known primarily as a bomber, which perhaps wouldn’t be the ideal type for this event, it’s interesting to note that he’s been gaining most of his ground on approach and on-and-around the greens. So with some good club selection and placement from the tee, he could easily put some scores together here. Four top 20s from his last five outings makes him stand out as a guy whose game is in really decent nick and the price certainly makes him a very interesting outsider.