Shriner’s Children’s Open 2023
Overview
Dates: October 12, 2023 to October 15, 2023
Location: Las Vegas
Course: TPC Summerlin
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7243
Prize Purse: $8400000
TPC Summerlin is the regular host for the Shriners, and as was the case last week, it’s going to take a bunch of birdies to get the job done. Winning scores in the low-to-mid 20s under par are the norm here and with the course a relatively short 7250 yards considering the altitude, it will require solid approach play and a warm putter. 8 of the top 10 in strokes gained approach finished in the top 15 last year, so that is our primary consideration, and although putting carries a slightly lower weighting, you’ll need to hole more than your fair share of birdie opportunities. Given the lack of length and number of water hazards in play, it’s no surprise to see accuracy favoured over distance, which is reflected in the roll call of previous champions here (Bryson being a notable exception).
It’s worth starting at the top of the market here, where we have two very different types vying for favouritism. We’ve made no secret of our admiration for Ludvig Aberg, but now the whole golfing world is talking about him, it’s becoming quite hard to make a case for him offering much in the way of value. Given that arguably his biggest strength is his driving, this looks to be a week to pass him up given that Summerlin is unlikely to be a venue that allows him to use his talents off the tee to separate himself from the field.
Preview
After an incredible conclusion to the Sanderson Farms, where numerous players held a winning chance before Luke List fell over the line, Las Vegas hosts the Shriners Children’s Open. Tom Kim returns to defend his title, Ludvig Aberg continues his quest to climb the rankings, and Lexi Thompson becomes the first female golfer to tee it up against the men since Brittany Lincicome in 2018.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Tom Kim | 4 | Each Way | 12/1 | 8 | +1200 |
| Adam Schenk | 2.5 | Each Way | 30/1 | 8 | +3000 |
| Davis Thompson | 2 | Each Way | 45/1 | 8 | +4500 |
| Adan Svennson | 2 | Each Way | 40/1 | 8 | +4500 |
| Tyler Duncan | 1 | Each Way | 150/1 | 8 | +16000 |
Tom Kim (4pts each way, 12/1, 8 places) on the other hand has already shown his love for this course, which is unsurprising given that accuracy off the tee and on approach are his biggest assets. Most notable in his stats is how his putting has improved, with significantly better numbers in the last 3 months than he had posted earlier in 2023. In short, everything looks to be in his favour for a strong run at defending his title and while we don’t often side with the favourites, we’re happy to do so when the price is right and there are ticks in as many boxes as we find for Tom Kim this week.
Adam Schenk (2.5pts each way, 30/1, 8 places) was someone we felt was consistently undervalued in the market towards the end of last season, and this still appears to be the case. Bar the front two in the market, his performances this year stack up extremely well against this field. He sits third for strokes gained approach over the last six months and just outside the top 20 in putting. A slight concern would be accuracy off the tee, but it’s worth noting that he was fourth in that category when posting a very respectable T12 here last year. He is our strongest pick to take advantage should the top two in the market fail to perform.
We were on Davis Thompson (2pts each way, 45/1, 8 places) last week and he finished in a respectable tie for 16th place. His tee-to-green game looked to be in great shape (top 10 both off the tee, on approach) and only a poor showing on and around the greens prevented him from getting much closer to the leaders. At a similar price to last week we’re happy to give him another chance here.
Adam Svensson (2pts each way, 40/1, 8 places) has all aspects of his game in rude health, with 5 consecutive top 40s, three of which saw him finish in the top 20. His recent improvement has seen him climb the rankings across a bunch of metrics, including notable improvement in driving accuracy, which makes him of definite interest here. The fact that he’s one of a fairly small number in the field to have shown he can win when in contention adds to the sense that he’s an appealing proposition to have on our side.
Finally, since this event has thrown up a few big-priced winners in the past, we’re happy to include a small stakes interest on a real longshot and that comes in the shape of Tyler Duncan (1pt each way, 150/1, 8 places). There is plenty of variability in the price on offer at time of writing, with as big as 250/1 available, but as little as 90/1 – we’ve posted the pick at a price we hope is realistic, although you may find you can get even bigger. Although he misses his share of cuts, he’s had some respectable recent finishes, including a top 20 just last week and another at the 3M Open. Of course his stats don’t scream “likely winner”, but nor would you expect that at this sort of price, and continuing the sort of numbers he posted in the Sanderson could just see him sneak us a big priced place return.