Sanderson Farms Championship
Overview
Dates: October 5, 2023 to October 8, 2023
Location: Jackson, Mississippi
Course: Country Club of Jackson
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7461
Prize Purse: $8200000
It’s our first full preview of the new PGA Tour season and after 2022/3 surpassed our expectations with an incredible 47% return on investment that we believe stands up against any other golf tipping service in the world, we’ll be hoping for something similar this year.
The Country Club of Jackson is the venue for the Sanderson Farms Championship for the 10th successive year and, perhaps unsurprisingly given its proximity to the Ryder Cup, it’s set to be one of the weakest fields of the season. But that hasn’t stopped us uncovering five value bets to get our season off to a flying start.
Preview
Weighing in at 7461 yards, this week’s course is likely to require some decent length off the tee, albeit accuracy is at less of a premium than usual. Winning scores have tended to be around the 20-under par mark, so it’s no surprise to find that a hot putter has tended to be a pre-requisite to contend. So bombers with a deft touch on the greens will be top of our list.
The obvious place to start in our analysis is with tournament favourite Ludvig Aberg, who is without doubt the only superstar lurking in the field. Rapidly rising up the rankings late last season, he made a spectacular Ryder Cup debut paired with fellow Scandinavian Viktor Hovland and looks set to feature in the world’s top 30 at least by the end of 2024; something that cannot be said about many (if any) of those he’s up against this week. In normal circumstances, 12/1 would appeal hugely as a price to get seriously involved, but there are reasons to be cautious about his prospects this week. European celebrations will doubtless have continued well beyond Sunday night, and it’s inconceivable that he won’t be physically and emotionally drained by the experience. Despite picking up a couple of points and performing admirably for a rookie, Aberg’s strokes gained data illustrate that he was to some extent carried by Hovland through their two successful foursomes games. In fact Aberg was objectively one of the weaker members of the European team, so even though on talent alone he should be a 6/1 shot against a field like this, we’ll happily pass him up and wait for opportunities to play him later in the season.
Outrights
Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
Stephan Jaegar | 3 | Each Way | 20/1 | 8 | +2000 |
Nicholas Lindheim | 2 | Each Way | 66/1 | 8 | +5500 |
Peter Kuest | 1.5 | Each Way | 66/1 | 8 | +7000 |
MJ Daffue | 1 | Each Way | 80/1 | 8 | +7000 |
Davis Thompson | 2 | Each Way | 45/1 | 8 | +4500 |
Our first pick of the new season is Stephan Jaeger (3pts each way, 20/1, 8 places), who bar the market leader brings some of the strongest recent form to the table and appears to have further upside potential this season. His last 5 outings have yielded 5 made cuts including two top 30 finishes and he features in the top 20 in all strokes gained categories except putting, which puts him 5th overall in this field. Plenty long enough off the tee, a top 30 in this event last year (against a markedly stronger field) seals the deal and makes him our headline selection.
Next up is a player who at first glance we were surprised to see so prominent in the market, but on further inspection fully warrants his place there in the shape of Nicholas Lindheim (2pts each way, 66/1, 8 places). Not by any means a regular on the main tour, he has posted a top 30 in this event in 2019 and a top 10 in 2018, showing a definite liking for Jackson CC. He steps up from the Korn Ferry on the back of several decent results, including a win, and posted a top 30 on his most recent PGA Tour outing in the Wyndham. While he doesn’t perfectly fit the long-driving, silky-putting profile we’re looking for here, the price of 66/1 makes him well worth an interest to continue his recent progress.
A couple of guys who more comfortably fit our ideal profile are Peter Kuest (1.5pts each way, 66/1, 8 places) and MJ Daffue (1pt each way, 80/1). Kuest is second in driving distance and ninth in putting, while Daffue sits slightly behind in both categories. Kuest made the most of his opportunities towards the back end of the 2022/3 season, putting in a bunch of decent showings without ever seriously threatening to win, but a little further progress is quite possible and could easily see him contend in a field as weak as he faces here. Daffue also brings reasonable late-season form to the table and despite missed cuts in his two most recent events, three straight top 50s before that show that on a course that should really play to his strengths, he has realistic prospects of another good week.
Finally, we’ll include a solid option in Davis Thompson (2pts each way, 45/1, 8 places), who ranks 13th in the field for total strokes gained in the last three months and looks a little under-valued in the market purely on that basis. Bar a missed cut in the 3M Open he has been busy racking up a string of impressive finishes in better events than this one and his form has been trending nicely over the last few months. He can be confidently expected to give us a decent run at a fair price, coming into this in better form than when posting a top 40 here last season.