The American Express 2022
The American Express 2022 Overview
Dates: January 20, 2022 to January 23, 2022
Location: La Quinta, California. USA
Course: La Quinta Country Club · PGA West · (Stadium Course) · (Nicklaus Tournament Course)
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7,060 yards (6,460 m) (LQ) · 7,140 yards (6,530 m) (S) · 7,181 yards (6,566 m) (NT)
Prize Purse: $7600000
The American Express is part of the PGA TOUR’s west coast swing and contested in La Quinta, CA in January.
Results
It’s hard to summarise how I’m feeling after this one. It was a week that could have been a disaster (things looked bleak after Round 1), briefly threatened to be spectacular (both Zalatoris and Si Woo putting themselves in good positions towards the latter stages), and ended up almost back where we started from a profit perspective. When you have three outright selections at 50/1+ finish in the top 25 and none of them finish in the money, it’s hard to take; Zalatoris finishing one shot and one place outside the top 5 was particularly upsetting.
Whilst obviously we need to hit winners to bank the profits we’re looking for, we have to look at the results in terms of whether or not they provide encouragement that we’re on the right lines: have we been highlighting players who offer value? And the AmEx definitely provided some validation. Swafford has featured several times in our staking plans and Hoge was our lead selection just one week ago (I’m sort of glad he didn’t win this week!). Although I’d put the overall results for the AmEx in the ‘slightly disappointing’ category, it’s reassuring to see that we clawed back most of our stakes on the week and would have made a healthy profit had Zalatoris or Si Woo holed just a couple more putts.
The American Express 2022 Preview
After Cam Smith got us off to a great start to 2022, it was down to earth with a bump as the Sony Open was not so kind to us. Back to the mainland this week for the AmEx, which is not a tournament I’m keen to get heavily involved in as the Pro-Am tour events can have more of a novelty feel to them and it’s hard to be confident that ‘normal’ tour form will hold up.
That said, there are some interesting angles for us to pursue. The AmEx is played over 3 different courses, with the cut after 3 rounds and the concluding round played on the Stadium Course. It’s a typical (tough) Pete Dye layout, which at time of design was fully intended to be the hardest course ever created. Some amusing quotes to be found (my personal favourite being that playing it is “like working through the stages of grief”), although truth be told these days there are enough tough tests to be found on tour that the Stadium Course doesn’t particularly stand out now. Winning scores are likely to be at least 20 under par, thanks largely to the two easier tracks in play.
A strong tee-to-green game is likely to be required, and we’ll be looking for some proven form on Dye tracks to guide our selections.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Hayden Buckley | 2 | EW | 125/1 | 8 | |
| Talor Gooch | 1.5 | EW | 30/1 | 8 | |
| Luke List | 1.5 | EW | 80/1 | 8 | |
| Will Zalatoris | 1.5 | EW | 50/1 | 5 | |
| Si Woo Kim | 1 | EW | 66/1 | 5 | |
| Doug Ghim | 1 | EW | 125/1 | 8 | |
| Russell Knox | 1 | EW | 85/1 | 8 |
We’ll lead off by going in again on a couple of players who we tipped last week in Hayden Buckley (2 pts ew, 125/1, 8 places) and Talor Gooch (1.5 pts ew, 30/1, 8 places). Buckley in particular had a good week at the Sony and landed us a top 20 finish, although narrowly outside the top 10 that we really wanted. I’m surprised to still see triple-figure prices available about him this week and we’ll stake accordingly (again with cover on the top 20). Gooch was arguably a little disappointing last week, but still recorded a top 30 despite not really firing. He stays on the hot list and while I’m now a little wary of him on courses where driving accuracy is at a premium, I’ve got him ahead of Finau, Ancer, Reed on current form, all of whom are in roughly the same place in the market.
Luke List (1.5 pts ew, 80/1, 8 places) was playing some lovely stuff towards the end of 2021 and his tee-to-green game stacks up well against anyone in this field. His putter has been stone cold, but in the hope that he’s made some progress in the off-season in that department, I’ll happily play him at that price. If he carries forward his long game form, he could easily place without having to get really hot on the greens.
Will Zalatoris (1.5 pts ew, 50/1, 5 places) has a big year ahead of him. We put him up in the 2021 Masters at a huge price in our first test event and he defied expectations in delivering second place on his first visit to Augusta. Arguably a little disappointing since, and also hampered by a cold putter at times, it’s hard to be confident whether he will push on or fade away, but 50/1 is juicy enough that I’m prepared to take a punt that it’s the former. We’ll take the bigger price with fewer places as he could easily bomb out if we’re wrong, to give us as much upside potential as possible.
Si Woo Kim (1pt ew, 66/1, 5 places) and Doug Ghim (1pt ew, 125/1, 8 places) make the list primarily due to some solid form on Dye courses. In particular, Kim won this event last year, while arguably Ghim’s best performance on tour was at the Players where he went into the final round with a real chance.
And finally, Russell Knox (1pt ew, 85/1, 8 places) has some very consistent course form (3 top 30s in recent years), and comes into this off the back of a strong showing at the Sony. Not a likely winner by any means, but another good week can easily be expected.
It was difficult to leave out Cantlay, whose form over the last few months entitles him to be priced on a par with Rahm. Finau was also of some interest, but it’s hard to make a case that either offers real value. Putnam was another long shot who could go well based on course form, with 3 top 25s in the last 4 years, and his recent results have been respectable – we’ll include him in our top 20 selections.
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Cantlay to beat Rahm | 6 | 13/10 | |
| Power to beat Ancer | 6 | 19/20 | |
| Wolff to beat Ancer | 5 | Evens | |
| Gooch to beat Finau | 4 | 19/20 | |
| Wolff to beat Reed | 4 | 10/11 |
After only catching 2 of 8 match ups last week, we’ll tread somewhat carefully this week, in the main because of the unusual nature of this event, but also because fewer match up markets are available at time of writing.
Our match up recommendations are:
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Hayden Buckley | Top 20 | 5 | 5/1 | |
| Andrew Putnam | Top 20 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| Tom Hoge | Top 20 | 2 | 6/1 | |
| Russell Knox | Top 20 | 4 | 9/5 |
It’s hard to summarise how I’m feeling after this one. It was a week that could have been a disaster (things looked bleak after Round 1), briefly threatened to be spectacular (both Zalatoris and Si Woo putting themselves in good positions towards the latter stages), and ended up almost back where we started from a profit perspective. When you have three outright selections at 50/1+ finish in the top 25 and none of them finish in the money, it’s hard to take; Zalatoris finishing one shot and one place outside the top 5 was particularly upsetting.
Whilst obviously we need to hit winners to bank the profits we’re looking for, we have to look at the results in terms of whether or not they provide encouragement that we’re on the right lines: have we been highlighting players who offer value? And the AmEx definitely provided some validation. Swafford has featured several times in our staking plans and Hoge was our lead selection just one week ago (I’m sort of glad he didn’t win this week!). Although I’d put the overall results for the AmEx in the ‘slightly disappointing’ category, it’s reassuring to see that we clawed back most of our stakes on the week and would have made a healthy profit had Zalatoris or Si Woo holed just a couple more putts.