Honda Classic 2022
Overview
Dates: February 24, 2022 to February 27, 2022
Location: Florida, USA
Course: PGA National Resort and Spa
Course Par: 70
Course Length: 7140 yards
Prize Purse: $8000000
The Honda Classic is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour in south Florida. It was founded in 1972 as Jackie Gleason’s Inverrary Classic, and prior to a schedule change in 2021 was frequently the first of the Florida events in late winter following the “West Coast Swing.”
Results
No two ways about it, it’s tough when one of your outright selections takes a five shot lead into the final round and finds a way to get beaten. When that player is an established performer, who frankly owned the place and was in complete control of every facet of his game for three days, it’s really hard to stomach. I’m honestly not sure what to make of how Sunday unfolded – but perhaps with some of the big moments having gone our way earlier in the year, in was inevitable that a painful moment was going to come.
Berger’s collapse turned what should have been a winning week into another small loss. It was a shame that McCarthy couldn’t birdie the par 5 18th as that would have added 24 points to our returns courtesy of his match up with Glover. Three of our other outright selections made the top 20 but failed to make the places, and both Rai and Smotherman showed up early at big prices before fading so it’s encouraging that we remain on the right lines with our tips, and if we keep going the results will come. A loss on the week, but could so easily have been very different.
Preview
After a rather disappointing week for FormGolfer followers at the Genesis, particularly on the outright market, the tour moves to Florida for the Honda Classic. For many it’ll be a welcome change to be switching back to Bermuda from the vagaries of Poa greens in recent weeks. That change alone could easily result in a few different names emerging on the leaderboards compared to what we’ve been seeing recently.
PGA National has a moderate course form trend, albeit there is no particularly strong SG profile we are looking for. Driving accuracy is relatively unimportant here and of the four SG metrics, it’s approach play that is just about the strongest factor in predicting success in this event. Interestingly, winning scores have been fairly modest (usually single-digits under par), albeit Matt Jones bucked the trend last year, largely as a result of an exceptional first round.
It’s a relatively weak field, as some of the bigger names take a break before the more prestigious events at Bay Hill and Sawgrass in early March. I certainly don’t mind playing in these weaker fields though, as the top players can sometimes be hard to predict in terms of which events they are really targeting.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Daniel Berger | 2.5 | ew | 16/1 | 8 | |
| Billy Horschel | 2.5 | ew | 22/1 | 8 | |
| Keith Mitchell | 2.5 | ew | 33/1 | 8 | |
| CT Pan | 1.5 | ew | 60/1 | 8 | |
| Aaron Rai | 1.5 | ew | 90/1 | 8 | |
| Austin Smotherman | 1 | ew | 200/1 | 8 |
Daniel Berger (2.5 pts ew, 16/1, 8 places) was looking like a winner waiting to happen before his recent back injury – some of his approach play in particular was truly exceptional. He’s been talking positively about his recovery, and having shaken off a bit of rust with a (narrowly) missed cut in Phoenix, I feel that this could be a good time to catch him.
Billy Horschel (2.5 pts ew, 22/1, 8 places) is working his way back into decent form, and his “sneak up on it” putting style is serving him particularly well of late. He’s tended to putt poorly in this event, but has secured a couple of T10s nonetheless, and if his recent form with the putter continues to any meaningful extent, he is more than likely to be right in contention come Sunday evening.
Keith Mitchell’s (2.5 pts ew, 33/1, 8 places) recent form is so solid that he has to be included, with 5 top 20s in his last 8 events. He also has a win in 2019 at the Honda (amongst a couple of MCs admittedly), and is another player who could well be trending towards a victory. On current form he still looks to be a little under-rated.
CT Pan (1.5 pts ew, 60/1, 8 places) could hardly be a confident selection, but had a good week at the Genesis and 3 top 40s in 5 cracks at the Honda suggests he could go well again. He can be a bit up and down but when in the mood is perfectly capable of contending.
Aaron Rai (1.5 pts ew, 90/1, 8 places) has been adjusting well to the PGA Tour, with a top 10 at the Famers being the highlight so far, and a trio of top 20s if you look a little further back this season. I don’t see him as ready to win a big event just yet, but this is a field in which he can be extremely competitive.
Finally, I can’t let Austin Smotherman (1pt ew, 200/1, 8 places) go unbacked at the price, even though the early 250/1 has been already snapped up. He’s looked good in more than one event recently – that alone is enough to have me very interested at the odds on offer, particularly with his putting having improved significantly in his last couple of outings; let’s hope that continues on the different surface in play this week.
Quite a few others to mention who were seriously considered. Matt Jones could easily go well in his defence of the title, although I’d have wanted a few points bigger before getting involved with him. Noren, KH Lee, Pereira weren’t far from making the list, and Cameron Young certainly would have done other than that I’m not a big fan of backing players who went very close the previous week, particularly those who are still searching for their first win. He’s starting to look like a real talent though, considering there remains a fair bit of room for improvement in his putting. Kramer Kickok was the other outsider that made the long list this week, although Hudson Swafford is worth a mention as it’s a touch surprising to see him at a similar price (100/1 plus) to when he won the AmEx just a month ago. Niemann looked like a world beater for (at least) the first three rounds at the Genesis, but I’m convinced that backing that type of performance to be followed up the next week is a surefire way to identify dreadful value.
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| McCarthy to beat Glover (TNB) | 12 | EVS | |
| Jones to beat Reed (TNB) | 8 | 5/6 | |
| Young to beat Wise | 8 | EVS | |
| Hojgaard to beat Fowler (TNB) | 7 | EVS | |
| Rai to beat Higgs (TNB) | 7 | 8/11 | |
| Horschel to beat Koepka | 6 | 10/11 | |
| Berger to beat Im (TNB) | 5 | 11/10 | |
| T Moore to beat Poulter (TNB) | 5 | EVS |
A small win on the match ups last week, which could have been significantly better with a half-decent final round from Cantlay to see off Jon Rahm, and had Henley’s putting been close to its normal standard. There look to be a few good opportunities to get stuck into this week.
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Keith Mitchell | Top 20 | 6 | 21/10 | |
| KH Lee | Top 20 | 3 | 11/4 | |
| Aaron Rai | Top 20 | 4 | 7/2 | |
| Kramer Kickok | Top 20 | 2 | 11/2 | |
| Austin Smotherman | Top 20 | 3 | 7/1 | |
| Aaron Rai | Top GB&I | 2 | 9/1 | |
| Mackenzie Hughes | Top Canadian | 4 | 9/4 |
No two ways about it, it’s tough when one of your outright selections takes a five shot lead into the final round and finds a way to get beaten. When that player is an established performer, who frankly owned the place and was in complete control of every facet of his game for three days, it’s really hard to stomach. I’m honestly not sure what to make of how Sunday unfolded – but perhaps with some of the big moments having gone our way earlier in the year, in was inevitable that a painful moment was going to come.
Berger’s collapse turned what should have been a winning week into another small loss. It was a shame that McCarthy couldn’t birdie the par 5 18th as that would have added 24 points to our returns courtesy of his match up with Glover. Three of our other outright selections made the top 20 but failed to make the places, and both Rai and Smotherman showed up early at big prices before fading so it’s encouraging that we remain on the right lines with our tips, and if we keep going the results will come. A loss on the week, but could so easily have been very different.