Mexico Open at Vidanta
Overview
Dates: February 22, 2024 to February 25, 2024
Location: Vallarta, Mexico
Course: Vidanta Vallarta
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7456
Prize Purse: $8100000.02
The early-season frustration ended in no uncertain fashion for FormGolfer followers with Hideki Matsuyama leading home a 1-2 finish from our five picks in the Genesis. That 66/1 win was enough to put us nicely into profit for the season despite a series of near misses in the first few events and hopefully we can quickly start to build on that.
Tony Finau returns to defend the title that he took last year, holding off Jon Rahm down the stretch. He unsurprisingly goes off a warm favourite in a very weak field, but looks to have lost all confidence in his putter, so it’d take some bravery to go wading in at prices around the 8/1 mark. Read on to find out who we’re putting up to find some value against the market leader.
Preview
We have limited course evidence to go on here, but on what we do know, Vidanta looks to be a bombers paradise; long at almost 7500 yards with wide landing areas from the tee and large greens. 24-under was the winning mark last year, so while strokes gained off the tee is probably our main focus, it’s unsurprising to note that all of the top 5 in 2023 gained significantly with the putter.
Although it’s hard to ignore the claims of such an obvious favourite in Tony Finau (He tops this field on world ranking and strokes gained, has a win and second place at the course on his CV, his putting has looked visibly shaky in recent times and it’ll take some performance from his tee-to-green game to give him enough opportunities to win again if that continues. It’s no surprise that his price has been drifting since the markets were initially formed.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Matt Wallace | 2.5 | Each Way | 70/1 | 8 | +7000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | 3.5 | Each Way | 28/1 | 8 | +2800 |
| Jake Knapp | 3 | Each Way | 40/1 | 8 | +4000 |
| SH Kim | 2 | Each Way | 60/1 | 8 | +6000 |
| Hayden Springer | 1 | Each Way | 200/1 | 8 | +20000 |
Our idea of the best value in the field is Matt Wallace (2.5pts each way, 70/1, 8 places). Despite having been losing ground off the tee, this is primarily due to issues with accuracy rather than distance. Sneaky long, we expect the wide open nature of Vidanta to give him more leeway, and the rest of his game is in good enough shape to think that a big week could be in store. Although his missed the cut here last year, that was primarily due to a horror show on the greens, which would be unusual for the Englishman. A lack of recent high finishes mean we’re getting a lovely price about someone who’s best game is certainly good enough to contend in a field with this few big names in it.
The solid one from the front of the market looks to be Taylor Pendrith (3.5pts each way, 28/1, 8 places). Known primarily as a bomber, he’s actually been gaining ground across all four strokes gained metrics and he really should be going close here. Three top tens from his last five outings stacks up as well as any in terms of recent form, while a respectable T30 last year (despite losing ground from the tee) was respectable enough; he can be expected to improve significantly on that showing this time out.
Jake Knapp (3pts each way, 40/1, 8 places) has made an instant impact since joining the main tour, characterised by some seriously long driving. After a quiet enough introduction in his first two events, he burst into life with a T3 in the Farmers against a much stronger field than he faces here and followed up with a top 30 in the Phoenix Open. It’s quite possible that this season will feature a fair few ups and downs, but he looks to be one of the most interesting rookies to follow and we have a course here that should suit him down to the ground. He’s already shown that he’s got the game, isn’t afraid of the Sunday back 9 pressure (unlike a few who are shorter in the market) and the price is enough to warrant getting involved.
Seonghyeon Kim (2pts each way, 60/1, 8 places) has been slightly let down by his approach play of late, but he sits above several who are more prominent in the market on total strokes gained. With iron play less of a concern than normal this week, he can be fancied to build on a series of respectable recent finishes (three top 40s from his last five). He appears to be in good enough nick to be considered a solid proposition to give us a decent run at a nice price.
We’ll complete the staking plan with a small stake at a huge price on someone who may just outperform expectations in the shape of Hayden Springer (1pt each way, 200/1, 8 places), who is another recent addition to the main tour and although we’ve not yet seen much of him in action, he won his last start on the Mackenzie Tour, before taking a couple of events to adjust, then posting an eyecatching top 40 in the Farmers. On the limited evidence of the stats, his strengths look to be driving and putting – a combination that should work well at Vidanta, so he’s worth a speculative interest, albeit one that it’s hard to be particularly confident about.