Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches
Overview
Dates: February 29, 2024 to March 3, 2024
Location: Florida
Course: PGA National Resort (The Champion)
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7147
Prize Purse: $9000000
It didn’t take long for things to pick up, with Jake Knapp (40/1) following up Hideki Matsuyama (66/1) to make it two huge-priced winners on the bounce for us and put us well ahead of the game, with 2024 return on investment now running at a shade over 90%. It also took us through the 1000 point profit mark in just a touch over two years, which exceeds even our most optimistic expectations when we set out to deliver profitable golf picks.
We’ll be aiming to keep our run going with the Cognizant Classic (previously known as the Honda Classic), in a field where Rory McIlroy stands out as the headline act, well ahead of everyone else in the early market, albeit recent evidence points to him being a weak favourite in our eyes.
Preview
In its former guise hosting the Honda Classic, PGA National certainly bared its teeth, despite weighing in fairly short at just a shade over 7000 yards. Winning scores have often been single digits under par, and anyone reaching 10 under or better has typically run out a fairly comfortable winner, so it’s certainly one of the tougher tests on tour.
Key to success appears to be approach accuracy, with all of the recent winners having gained significantly in this department. So it seems sensible to focus our analysis on this statistic and to bear in mind that distance off the tee looks to be far less of an advantage here than it was in Mexico last week.
Outrights
Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
Tom Hoge | 3 | Each Way | 50/1 | 8 | +5500 |
Byeong-An | 3 | Each Way | 28/1 | 8 | +2800 |
Keith Mitchell | 2.5 | Each Way | 40/1 | 8 | +4000 |
Matthieu Pavon | 2.5 | Each Way | 45/1 | 8 | +5000 |
Doug Ghim | 1.5 | Each Way | 70/1 | 8 | +7000 |
Top billing goes to Tom Hoge (3pts each way, 50/1, 8 places), who after a disappointing slump in form has shown clear signs of late that he’s getting back to something like his best. Four top 20s already this season suggests he seems to be peaking again. And as FormGolfer followers will be well aware, his best game is certainly good enough to take out events like this. The clincher is that he sits second in this field on strokes gained approach in the last three months, while lack of distance from the tee won’t be any sort of handicap to his prospects here. At the available prices, he’s worth a decent investment.
Byeong-Hun An (3pts each way, 28/1, 8 places) readily goes onto this week’s staking plan, bringing some of the best course form in the field, and a lovely run of consistent recent form that has brought three top 20s in his last five outings. There are plenty around him in the market whose chance is much less obvious and if he’s to step up again and secure his first victory in some time, this looks to be an ideal opportunity to do so.
Keith Mitchell (2.5pts each way, 40/1, 8 places) won this event in 2019, has been edging back towards his best and looks to be another very solid option to include. Top 10 in the field in strokes gained approach recently (and third on that metric in Mexico), he has also posted three top 20s in five – in short the case for him is very similar to that for Ben An, and his price is similar too, so we’ll happily include them both. It’d be pretty surprising if neither features towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Matthieu Pavon (2.5pts each way, 45/1, 8 places) comes into this in such good form that it’s hard to ignore his chances. His success in the Farmer’s was as unexpected as it was frustrating for those of us who were on runner up Nicolai Hojgaard, but his performance the following week in the AT&T made it three top 10s in four since joining the PGA Tour. Given that this recent success has been built on a foundation of stunning approach play, it’s not unreasonable to think he can put in another big performance, albeit our nagging suspicion is that he will revert to the sort of form that has characterised most of his career before too long.
We’ll complete this week’s line up with Doug Ghim (1.5pts each way, 70/1, 8 places), who had been threatening to become a disappointment, having lit up the Players a few years ago before fading on the final day. Like some of the others on our radar this week, he’s showing a strong improvement trend of late, with three top 15 finishes to show from his last three tournaments. Also like our other picks, approach play is where he gains most of his ground, so despite having some reservations about his ability to close out a win, he’s a very plausible top 10 finisher here as he should be able to pick his way round PGA National better than most.
Plenty of others make some appeal, notably Eric Cole, Erik Van Rooyen, Sepp Straka and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. But we’re happy we’ve got enough value on our side to see us having another profitable week.