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AT & T Pebble Beach Pro Am

Overview

Dates: February 1, 2024 to February 4, 2024

Location: California

Course: Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill

Course Par: 72

Course Length: 6972/7041

Prize Purse: $20000000

It’s been quite a start to 2024 with winners coming out of leftfield in every event so far. Having gone agonisingly close with Nicolai Hojgaard missing out by a single shot last week (we still can’t believe how Pavon made birdie on 18), continuing the theme of near misses in January, it’s surely only a matter of time before the first winner of the year comes along.


Preview

The AT&T has a very different feel this year. Monterey Peninsula has been axed from the rotation, so there will now be 3 rounds at Pebble Beach with a solitary round at Spyglass Hill. This arguably works in our favour since there is more statistical data to work with at Pebble. The field is also reduced to 80 and it’s been elevated to signature event status. It was notable in 2023 how most of the elevated events went the way of the bigger names, so it’ll be interesting to see whether the run of big-priced winners that kicked off the season is finally broken this week.

Outrights

Player Points Type UK Odds Places Outright US Odds
Max Homa 3 EW 16/1 7 +1800
Eric Cole 2.5 EW 60/1 7 +6000
JT Poston 2 EW 50/1 7 +5000
Russell Henley 2.5 EW 55/1 7 +5500
Beau Hossler 2 EW 50/1 7 +6000
Peter Manati 0.5 EW 600/1 7 +70000

At a juicier price than was available last week and in a field half the size (albeit a little stronger towards the head of the market), California specialist Max Homa (3pts each way, 16/1, 7 places) is the first name to go on the staking plan. While he will have been slightly disappointed not to go a little closer to defending his title at Torrey Pines, he managed to bag his fifth consecutive top 15 finish, continuing to show form that indicates he now firmly belongs in the top 10 in the world. There’s nothing in his profile to suggest he won’t go very close this week.
Eric Cole (2.5pts each way, 60/1, 7 places) had a rare off-week in the Farmers but he was arguably always going to struggle a touch at such course with such a premium on driving and we’re getting a lovely boost to his price as a result. The balance of his form coupled with approach play and putting stats that stack up well against the very best in this field make him a seriously appealing proposition, and a top 15 finish in this event last year (while just starting to work his way up the rankings) seals the deal.
Neither JT Poston (2pts each way, 50/1, 7 places) and Russell Henley (2.5pts each way, 55/1, 7 places) would feature amongst the sexier names on the tour, but both bring exactly the kind of profile that suggests they should go very well at Pebble Beach. Lack of length from the tee won’t be the usual handicap this week and they boast the approach play, scrambling skills and touch on the greens that should see them create and secure more birdies than most. We’ll give a slight nod to Henley with a bigger stake on account of his driving being somewhat more accurate, which ought to give him a marginal edge.
Beau Hossler (2pts each way, 55/1, 7 places) wouldn’t normally be someone we’d be keen to get involved with at a fairly tight price, but as an unfashionable name who’s been in cracking form of late, he looks to be better value than some of those around him in the market. As such we can’t let him go unbacked here, particularly having shown a liking for this venue in the past (T11 in 2023 despite some fairly poor putting stats). A good week at Torrey was his third top 10 in his last 5 starts and there’s every reason to think he can hold his form for a little longer and land another big finish.
For one final throw of the dice, we’ll throw a very small stake at Peter Malnati (0.5pts each way, 600/1, 7 places), who goes in to this event as the outsider of the entire field. With four straight missed cuts and lying close to last in the field on total strokes gained in the last six months, you could easily be forgiven for thinking that we’ve lost our minds. There is only one real reason for feeling that a small play is worthwhile and that’s a top 5 finish last year and a T11 in 2020 (and a less impressive top 40 in 2018) indicating that he has some affinity for the venue, so perhaps if he is to find a good week out of nowhere, this might be it. At the price, it’s worth a small interest to find out.

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