Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024
Overview
Dates: March 7, 2024 to March 10, 2024
Location: Orlando, Florida
Course: Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & lodge
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7466
Prize Purse: $20000000
After a slightly frustrating conclusion to the Cognizant Classic, with all of our picks making the top 30 but none quite hitting the top 8, it’s time for another of the Signature Events as we head for Bay Hill and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Kurt Kitayama was a surprise winner here last season and defends his title against a field that comprises all the top players in the world bar the recent LIV defectors.
Preview
Bay Hill is always one of the toughest tests on tour, requiring great ball-striking and all aspects of your game to be in good shape. Winning scores are often fewer than 10 strokes under par. If forced to pick a primary focus, it’d be approach play, which ranks a little higher than the tour average for relevance in this event. It’s hard to pick a typical type of winner, with bombers like Rory and Bryson sitting alongside Francesco Molinari and Matt Every. With plenty of water in play, we’d definitely like to be seeing a healthy combination of accuracy and distance from the tee rather than pure brute force. Rory and Scheffler are comfortably clear at the head of the market, but we’re happy enough to dodge them both this week given concerns over general form (Rory) and putting (Scheffler).
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Collin Morikawa | 3.5 | Each Way | 22/1 | 7 | +2500 |
| Adam Hadwin | 2.5 | Each Way | 70/1 | 7 | +8000 |
| Cory Conners | 1.5 | Each Way | 50/1 | 7 | +6000 |
| Xander Schauffele | 3 | Each Way | 14/1 | 7 | +1800 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 1.5 | Each Way | 66/1 | 7 | +8000 |
Our number one pick goes to Collin Morikawa (3.5pts each way, 22/1, 7 places), who is typically one of the first names that springs to mind when ball-striking and approach play are high on your list of requirements, and is available at a perfectly fair price. His form so far this season is solid enough, with several top 20s to show for his efforts, and there’s reason to think he can improve on that here, which should be more than enough for another solid showing.
Adam Hadwin (2.5pts each way, 70/1, 7 places) looks by some way to be the best value away from the bigger names here. Top 10s in the AmEx and the Genesis from his last 5 outings show he’s in cracking form and he sits inside the top 10 on total strokes gained over the last six months (ahead of the likes of McIlroy and Hovland). He makes a good bit of appeal at the available price.
Corey Conners (1.5pts each way, 50/1, 7 places) is still plagued by troubles on the greens, but has shown enough on recent outings at Bay Hill and brings strong enough recent tee-to-green stats to suggest he can overcome this handicap with a premium on grinding out pars rather than having to make a ton of birdies. Although his recent form has been unspectacular, this is compensated for in the price and his course form is enough for us to give him a strong chance of a top 20 at the very least.
With doubts over the market leaders, it’s very hard not to think that Xander Schauffele (3pts each way, 14/1, 7 places) has to be in for a big week. He continues to churn out solid results week after week, and although he doesn’t get himself over the line for as many wins as his talent suggests he should, this sort of grinding test really ought to shoot him well, so we see this as a rare occasion where his price may offer a little value.
Finally, defending champion Kurt Kitayama (1.5pts each way, 66/1, 7 places) can be given at least a sporting chance of going close to defending his title, coming into this with a run of top 40 finishes and his approach play in particular in excellent shape. It’s a little surprising that his price isn’t a touch shorter considering how well he closed out last year, with some big names breathing down his neck.