Waste management Phoenix Open 2024
Overview
Dates: February 8, 2024 to February 11, 2024
Location: Phoenix Arizona
Course: TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7261
Prize Purse: $8800000
Another frustrating near miss for us in the AT&T as the weather put paid to our chances of converting one of several promising opportunities of a decent payout. These things tend to balance out, however, and here’s hoping that the Phoenix Open is where the turnaround starts.
Scottie Scheffler took out the last two editions of this event and returns in the same sort of form that saw him put together an astonishing string of high finishes in 2023, without perhaps converting as many of those as he should have done. Unsurprisingly he tops the market to secure a rare three-peat.
Preview
Greens in regulation is the standout statistic for success here, so we’ll be prioritising solid ball-strikers. Course form also tends to hold up well from year-to-year, which is perhaps to be expected given the unique atmosphere generated by the huge crowds – most notably at the iconic par three 16th holes. Not particularly long, nor onerous from the tee, it’ll likely take a score close to 20 under to secure the title.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | 7 | Win | 5/1 | 1 | +500 |
| Wyndham Clark | 3 | EW | 28/1 | 8 | +2800 |
| Eric Cole | 2.5 | EW | 45/1 | 8 | +4500 |
| Taylor Montgomery | 1 | EW | 100/1 | 8 | +11000 |
| Michael Kim | 1 | EW | 100/1 | 8 | +12000 |
This looks to be one of those weeks where the answer just slaps you in the face and Scottie Scheffler (7pts win, 5/1) simply has to go on the staking plan. He’s generally been going off at only fractionally bigger prices in stronger fields than this, he leads the field by a country mile on total strokes gained over the last year, and with the premium on course form here, it’s not hard to make the case that 5/1 is a very fair price. It was tempting to go each way and view it as a bet to nothing, but on balance we feel the win part represents the better value, so we’d rather take our chances and up the stake. Main market rival Justin Thomas has been showing signs that he’s ready to win again, but the market considers Scottie to be just under twice as likely to win this event as JT, and that has to underplay his chance here relative to someone who hasn’t won in an age.
Last week’s winner Wyndham Clark (3pts each way, 28/1, 8 places) also has to be included. Despite having endured a slump in form after his US Open win, he ranks fourth in the field for total strokes gained in the last year, which shows how good he can be at the peak of his game. We saw that in no uncertain terms in the final two rounds at the AT&T and given that he didn’t have to experience the usual stresses of a final round in contention, going back-to-back is perhaps more likely than would usually be the case.
But for a crazy hour or so in which Eric Cole (2.5pts each way, 45/1, 8 places) dropped six shots in four holes last week, he’d have been very close to the lead at the point of abandonment of the AT&T, so he’s readily given another chance on a course that should suit his precision game to a nicety. He’s a similar price in a less deep field, having shown again that his form is holding up well, so a decent each way play is recommended on someone who may well be winning sooner than later.
At bigger prices, we’ll take a chance on Taylor Montgomery (1pt each way, 100/1, 8 places) and Michael Kim (1pt each way, 100/1, 8 places), both of whom have been trending nicely in recent times and look to be a touch under-valued in the market. Montgomery’s long game had been letting him down over a number of months, but his putting remains amongst the very best in the game. Recent improvements in approach play in particular mean that he may just get enough opportunities to let his flat stick propel him up the leaderboard. Kim has posted five straight made cuts and top 50 finishes, and while a little further improvement will probably be needed here, he seems to be on very good terms with his game and TPC Scottsdale should suit a lot better than Torrey Pines, for example, where he still performed with a deal of credit.
Of the others, JT Poston, Ben An and Justin Thomas all appeal as very plausible winners given both current form and history at this event, but there wasn’t enough in their prices to get us excited. Erik van Rooyen was the other outside we considered, but reluctantly left off the staking plan on this occasion.