The RSM Classic
Overview
Dates: November 16, 2023 to November 19, 2023
Location: St Simons Island
Course: Sea Island courses
Course Par: 70
Course Length: 7005
Prize Purse: $8400000
It was a narrow escape for the bookmakers in Bermuda as four of our six picks made the top 20, but
unfortunately it was only Alex Noren that made the top 8. We had a good run for our money though
and attention now turns to Sea Island for the final event of what has been a spectacular season for
us, before we take a well-earned rest over the festive period.
Preview
The Seaside and Plantation courses host the RSM Classic this week, both of which come in around
the 7000 yard mark, playing to a par of 70 and 72 respectively. Past results tell us that driving and
putting are the two go-to statistics when trying to find the winner, and it might be wise to expect the
unexpected, with past champions including less-heralded names such as Tyler Duncan, Robert Streb
(twice) and Austin Cook. Ludvig Aberg heads the market, as he has done in each of his outings since
the Ryder Cup, with the likes of Cameron Young, Corey Conners and Brian Harman slotting in just
behind him.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Luke List | 2.5 | Each Way | 50/1 | 8 | +6000 |
| Austin Cook | 1.5 | Each Way | 150/1 | 6 | +15000 |
| Troy Merritt | 1.5 | Each Way | 150/1 | 5 | +18000 |
| Billy Horschel | 2.5 | Each Way | 40/1 | 8 | +4500 |
| Cameron Young | 3.5 | Each Way | 20/1 | 8 | +2000 |
Luke List (2.5pts each way, 50/1, 8 places) has hit a rich vein of form of late, boosted in part by an
upturn in fortunes on the greens. His driving remains up there with the very best in the game, so
this really ought to be a great opportunity for him to continue his strong finish to what had until
recently been a disappointing year. A top 10 in this event last year and a top 5 in 2019 provides
further evidence that Sea Island is a good fit for his game, and he makes a good bit of appeal at the
available price.
We were on Austin Cook (1.5pts each way, 150/1, 8 places) last week and he put in a good
performance for us at a huge price to finish inside the top 15, with a couple of untimely mistakes
meaning that we just missed out on a nice payout. His one and only PGA Tour victory came in this
event and his form is certainly building nicely with four cuts made from his last five and two top 15s
in that period. He doesn’t perfectly fit the profile, given that his driving can be suspect at times, but
at a bigger price than we backed him at last week, we can’t resist getting involved in him again – he
looks to have a plausible chance at the very least of getting into contention.
Troy Merritt (1.5pts each way, 150/1, 8 places) fits our profile a little better and is another at a huge
price whose recent form entitles him to more respect than the market has given him. Five cuts
made in a row is a good starting point, but when you consider that this run includes top 10s in the
Fortinet and Sanderson Farms, he becomes even more interesting. His form has cooled a little in his
three most recent outings, but as with Cook his price makes him of definite interest as someone with
a sporting chance of giving us a good payday.
Billy Horschel (2.5pts each way, 40/1, 8 places) also looks to be over-priced as one of the class
players in the field, particularly when you consider that his driving and putting have been the
foundation of his recent performances. It’s not been his greatest season by any means, but there
have been signs of life lately, with fourth place in the Wyndham his most recent PGA Tour finish,
followed by a decent stint in Europe, which yielded a further three top 20s. We know he has the
class to win, and he wouldn’t need to be at his very best to finish high up the leaderboard.
It was very tempting to get heavily involved in Ludvig Aberg this week – he’s available at a bigger
price than he has been recently, and Sea Island should suit him pretty well, However we still see him as
having reputation and potential factored into the market at the moment, so will reluctantly pass him
up in favour of Cameron Young (3.5pts each way, 20/1, 8 places) – another who has arguably had a
slightly disappointing year, but should enjoy Sea Island and may see this as a good opportunity to
salvage something from his season. On both driving and putting he is well ahead of Aberg in recent
months, and if he can find a little improvement with his approach play, he definitely has the class to
separate himself from most if not all of this field. At almost twice the price of the favourite, he’s our
clear pick of the market leaders from a value perspective.
That’s us done for 2023. Hopefully the RSM will put the seal on a great year for FormGolfer and we
look forward to another profitable year in 2024!