The PGA Championship
Overview
Dates: May 16, 2024 to May 19, 2024
Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Course: Valhalla Golf Club
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7609
Prize Purse: $25000000
![](https://www.formgolfer.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/valhalla.jpeg)
All eyes are on Valhalla this week for the second major of the season as Scottie Scheffler aims to get himself half way towards a grand slam that on current form could be a real possibility. But after a supreme showing in winning the Wells Fargo, he’s running right into a back-to-form Rory McIlroy, and what a thrill it would be to see those two at the top of their game duelling it out on Sunday.
Preview
The last time Valhalla was used for a major event, it was fully 10 years ago, when Rory McIlroy won the most recent of his four career majors. The course has been tinkered with since then, extended by 100 or so yards, but perhaps most notably has been re-seeded with Zoysia grass. So we have little relevant course form to go on, with the field looking very different to the 2014 edition of this event. That said, we can look back to the strokes gained data from that week and a couple of interesting patterns emerge. First, all of the top six (and Ernie Els in T7) gained ground in every single category over the course of the week, so a strong all-round game looks to be all but essential. Strokes gained approach is arguably the key metric, with approach play demanding pinpoint accuracy and distance control to avoid the greenside trouble and hold the putting surface. Phil Mickelson has said that a high ball flight is a key attribute to scoring well on this course, so that’s certainly something we’ve been looking for. A smattering of shorter hitters performed with great credit, so despite a little length having been added, we can conclude that keeping it in play is every bit as important as pure power.
Outrights
Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
Rory MciIroy | 8 | Win | 15/2 | 1 | +800 |
Justin Thomas | 2.5 | EW | 45/1 | 10 | +5500 |
Akshay Bhatia | 1.5 | EW | 125/1 | 8 | +12500 |
Russell Henley | 1.5 | EW | 100/1 | 10 | +11000 |
Alex Noren | 1 | EW | 100/1 | 10 | +15000 |
Cory Connors | 1.5 | EW | 90/1 | 10 | +11000 |
Having strongly recommended him last week, and with so much in his favour, it’s impossible not to make Rory McIlroy (8pts win, 15/2) our headline pick again. It was a joy to watch him take the field apart at Quail Hollow with an imperious display of driving, and he looked to have rediscovered the confident swagger that has accompanied so many of his best performances over the years. It looked for all the world like it could be the start of a summer to remember for the Irishman and he is just about the only player in the field who could be fancied to give an on-form Scheffler a run for his money. The fact that Valhalla will be a course he’s looking forward to getting back to just adds to the confidence that this must be a huge week for him. We fancy him to get out of the blocks quickly in round 1 (20/1 for first round leader makes a great deal of appeal) and put distance between himself and most of the field by halfway.
Many of the other market leaders make limited appeal, either due to concerns about form or on value grounds. As we scanned down the list, the next player to stand out as being over-priced was Justin Thomas (2.5pts each way, 45/1, 10 places). JT has made a steady return to something like his best form this season, meaning that we’ve been asked to take prices around the 20-25/1 mark for numerous events, which seemed a little short given how long it’s been since he won. At almost double that price this week, however, we are definitely willing to give him a chance. It would only take a small upturn in his putting (which can by no means be guaranteed) for him to be a real contender given how solid his long game has been. And he is a proven major winner, which can’t be said for several of those who sit above him in the market.
Our next pick is Akshay Bhatia (1.5pts each way, 125/1, 8 places), who having won the Boys Junior PGA Championship at this venue in 2018 is one of very few in this field to bring winning course form to the table. Clearly this is a whole different ball game, but Bhatia has shown on several occasions this season (including when securing his maiden Tour victory) that he has the game to compete with the very best and in his price bracket he makes a lot of appeal as one of the most likely to go very well here.
We’ll complete our picks with a selection of bigger-priced selections who all bring plenty of major experience to the table, have been in decent all-round form of late and who can be given a sporting chance at least of making the top 10 when the dust settles.
Corey Conners (1.5pts each way, 90/1, 10 places) seems to produce his best finishes on the toughest courses, not entirely surprisingly given that his tee-to-green game is his biggest asset, so sticking around when pars rather than birdies are what gets the job done is always likely to be his forte. His putting remains his undoing all too often, but it wouldn’t surprise if he added another top 10 finish to his major record.
Russell Henley (1.5pts each way, 100/1, 10 places) has three top 12s in his last four events and has been posting positive strokes gained numbers across all four metrics. Without ever really getting noticed, he’s put together a run of form that sees him ranked 12th in the field here for total strokes gained in the last three months, which makes it easy to view him as over-priced given his relatively lowly position in the market.
Alex Noren (1pt each way, 100/1, 10 places) has a very similar profile to Henley in having been racking up some consistent finishes, solid statistics (top 10 in the field for total SG). His major record would be less positive than Henley’s, hence the slightly smaller stake, but a solid week without ever really threatening to win wouldn’t surprise us in the least.
Others we considered included Sepp Straka, Will Zalatoris and Sam Burns, who all make a certain amount of appeal at the available odds. Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele look to be the other solid pair from the front of the market, although Aberg looks a shade under-priced, while Schauffele looks to us to be more of a solid top 10 play given his tendency to find ways not to win.