The Genesis Invitational 2024

Outrights

Top billing this week goes to Jordan Spieth (3pts each way, 28/1, 7 places), who ticks the vast majority of the boxes we’re looking for here. The Augusta form link makes him an obvious candidate to do well here, which makes it slightly surprising that he’s not fared better here in the past, a couple of top 20s interspersed with some poor finishes, several of which were characterised by some unusually poor putting. He’s shown in recent times though that his short game is coming back to its very best, and although he’s still prone to the occasional miss from short range, he certainly has the imagination to do very well at Riviera. The fact he’s not threatened to win here before means we’re getting a much bigger price than was available at Phoenix, in a much smaller (albeit slightly stronger) field, so on value grounds he makes a good bit of appeal.
Sahith Theegala (3pts each way, 33/1, 7 places) is another magician on and around the greens, sitting third in strokes gained putting and in the top 20 around the green over the last six months. A top 10 in this event in 2023 (despite not putting great) allied to a top 10 on debut in the US Masters are a strong indicator that he could become a repeat contender in the Genesis in the years ahead. Although it was slightly disappointing that he couldn’t convert a winning opportunity in Phoenix, a top 5 there shows that he comes here in great nick.
Unfortunately the bigger prices disappeared almost immediately about Adam Scott (2.5 pts each way, 40/1, 7 places), so we’ve reduced the stake a touch as a result, but on a combination of Riviera and Augusta form, there are few who can come close to the Aussie’s credentials, and we feel he still represents a touch of value. Having shown some improvement with the putter in recent times, one of his big weaknesses has been largely addressed, while his driving and approach play still stand up against most in the world. Scrambling would be the big worry, but he’s likely to hit more greens than most here, so another big week in one of his favourite events looks to be squarely on the cards.
Will Zalatoris (2pts each way, 45/1, 7 places) has shown tentative signs that his very best form may not be far away following his return from a long injury layoff, and at the prices it’s worth taking a chance that he continues that trend here, given that he’s another with strong form at both Augusta and Riviera on his CV. We saw with Daniel Berger earlier in the season that there can be false dawns on the path to recuperation from injury, but Zalatoris has youth on his side and more upside potential than Berger. At his very best he’d be half the price on offer this week so we’ll happily take the risk.
Finally, and despite some significant concerns regarding his putting, Hideki Matsuyama (1.5pts each way, 66/1, 7 places) looks to be a little undervalued given his track record here, and of course at the masters. It was encouraging to see him in positive strokes gained territory with the putter in Phoenix, and if he can continue that form with a return to his usual long game proficiency, he could easily put in another big showing here. He stands out amongst those in the same price bracket as the one with the most potential to outperform his price.
Others we considered included Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young and most notably Justin Thomas, who must be winning soon and at double the price we were being asked to take in Phoenix, makes much more appeal on value grounds this week. Xander Schauffele looks to be the other very solid one from the front of the market but doesn’t win often enough these days to get us excited about getting involved at the price.