The Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Outrights

We had a spell earlier in the season of wanting to keep Ben Griffin (3pts each way, 20/1, 8 places) very much on our side, and while we never cashed on him during that period, this looks to be a great opportunity for him to go very close. He arguably should have won here last year, but for an untimely wobble during his final round, and it’s unsurprising that he went so well given that he’s fairly short off the tee but makes ground on approach and on the greens. This could well be a venue that he performs at year after year, so he’s a straightforward headline selection for us at the price available.
Another obvious one from the top of the market whose profile should perfectly suit Port Royal is Brendon Todd (3pts each way, 16/1, 8 places) and while is price is nothing to shout about, he’s a very plausible winner and really ought to be contending here. Second in the field in total strokes gained since August, his stats profile is very similar to Griffin and his 2020 victory here, with a 24-under score, indicates how well he’s suited to this test. A sixth in his last outing at the Fortinet shows that he’s coming into this in decent form. It ought to be an event that he has been targeting and he simply has to give us a good run for our money.
Normally we’d be reluctant to play three guys from the top 10 in the market, but Alex Noren (3pts each way, 22/1, 8 places) also stands out as too well-suited to leave out. The arguments are very similar to those in favour of Griffin and Todd as someone who should be able to use his short game strengths to separate himself from the field. Noren also comes into this in fairly decent recent form, with four out of five cuts made and a T3 in the Shriner’s the highlight of that run. Only a slight cooling in his putting stats in the last couple of months prevents him being a more confident selection.
Looking away from the obvious, a guy with eyecatching trend data is Vincent Whaley (1.5pts each way, 50/1, 8 places). Over a six month period, Whaley sits some way down this field in negative strokes gained territory in every aspect of his game bar driving. However if you restrict the analysis to just the last three months, the picture is very different. Fifth in the field overall and gaining shots across all four key metrics, he is the very definition of someone who’s trending, not unlike last week’s winner Erik van Rooyen who we picked on similar grounds. He may not be as perfectly suited to Port Royal as we’d ideally liked, but it’s hard to ignore someone whose game seems to be picking up to quite this extent.
We’ll finish with a couple of speculative longshots in the shape of Lanto Griffin (1.5pts each way, 55/1, 8 places) and Austin Cook (1pt each way, 100/1, 8 places). In what is likely to turn into a putting shootout, it’s hard not to want the best putter in the field on your side, and that’s the position Lanto Griffin finds himself in. Having been working his way gradually back from injury this season, he’s shown only occasional glimpses of his very best form, but has now made his last three cuts in a row. His performance in the WWT last week wouldn’t be enough to win this, but previous top 30s in the Sanderson and Shriner’s wouldn’t put him too far away. Austin Cook has an even less obvious chance, but his lack of length is a severe hindrance on most courses he takes on. He secured his best finish in a while with a T10 last week, has been putting well enough lately to make his share of birdies and has at least shown he can win when given the opportunity (albeit not for some time). The price is big enough to make him interesting to small stakes.