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Zozo Championship 2022

Overview

Dates: October 13, 2022 to October 16, 2022

Location: Japan

Course: Narashino Country Club

Course Par: 70

Course Length: 7079 yards

Prize Purse: $11000000

The PGA TOUR heads back to Japan for the fourth iteration of the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. Japan’s favorite modern golfing son, Hideki Matsuyama, will headline the field as he looks to defend his title from last season.  Matsuyama is joined by several big names including Xander Schauffele, who secured his Olympic gold medal in Japan, Collin Morikawa and the Tour’s newest star Tom Kim, who picked up the second title of his fledgeling career last week at the Shriners.


Results

Not a week to dwell on for us as it was evident from a fairly early stage that none of our recommendations were likely to threaten the upper reaches of the leaderboard on Sunday.  We went with some more adventurous picks, but nonetheless it was a little disappointing that we couldn’t get at least one of them into some sort of contention.

While eventual winner Keegan Bradley could have been given some sort of chance on form, the leaderboard as a whole had a slightly lopsided look to it, so I’m not inclined to read a great deal into the result of that event.

Back to the regular US routine this week for the CJ Cup, which is a relief as I’m not a fan of the events that require the players to take on significant travel and jet lag in the days ahead of the tournament.  We intentionally kept staking fairly low key in anticipation of the possibility of an odd result.  It’ll also be nice not to have to get out of bed in (or stay awake until) the middle of the night to watch the action unfold.


Preview

Narashino Country Club hosts the Zozo championship for the third time this week as the PGA Tour makes a trip to Japan.  Local hero Hideki Matsuyama brings the best course form to the table courtesy of a five shot victory last year and a second to Tiger Woods in 2020.  However his recent form has been below his usual standards and despite the reduced field (many of whom cannot be seriously considered), there are a number of potential challengers to his crown.

There is little to go on in terms of course stats as ShotLink data has not been available from previous hostings at Narashino.  That said, it’s clear that a tidy long game is key to success on a fairly tight, tree-lined course.  It’s not overly long and we’ll be looking towards accuracy off the tee and solid approach play in our hunt for the winner.

Outrights

Player Points Type UK Odds Places Outright US Odds
Aaron Rai 1.5 each way 100/1 5 +10000
Sepp Straka 2 each way 50/1 6 +5000
Mito Pereira 2 each way 33/1 6 +3500
Mark Hubbard 1.5 each way 66/1 7 +7500
Troy Merritt 1 each way 90/1 7 +11000

We’ll lead off this week with Aaron Rai (1.5pts each way, 100/1, 5 places), who I believe represents the best value on offer.  One of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field, he has been gradually establishing himself as a full member of the PGA Tour and can be fancied to improve on a solid performance (T20) at the Shriners on a course that ought to suit him a little better.  The weakest part of his game is on and around the greens, but I’d expect that to be less of an issue this week than it was at TPC Summerlin.  You can get 80/1 for 6 places or 66/1 with 7 places, but I feel the best value marginally lies with the longer price and fewer places.

Regular followers will know that Sepp Straka (2pts each way, 50/1, 6 places) is a golfer who I feel has been consistently under-rated.  Now up to a career high ranking of 26 (from outside the top 200 at the start of the year), he’s capable of extreme swings in form – but when in good shape, as he appears to be at the moment, he has shown he can regularly get into contention, and can close it out when the pressure is on.  At the price on offer, he has to be included in the staking plan.

Mito Pereira (2pts each way, 33/1, 6 places) has taken some time to recover from the agony of throwing away a golden opportunity to win himself a major at the US PGA last year, but the signs are that he is ready to contend again.  His approach play is right up there with the best in this field and a small improvement in his fortunes with the wedge and putter could easily see him going very close.

Mark Hubbard (1.5 pts each way 66/1, 7 places) has been in sparkling form for a while now (top 30 in each of his last 3 outings) and he put in another solid showing at the Shriners.  Having not really got into contention to win during that period he’s perhaps still a little under-rated in the market and I’m happy that the price at least gives us a decent opportunity to cash a fair return from the place part of the bet, even if he’s unlikely to win.

Troy Merritt (1pt each way, 90/1, 7 places) is a more speculative option, but there’s enough in his stats to make me feel that he’s worth including this week.  He tops the driving accuracy stats over the last 3 months (5th in the field when you look back over 6 months), while his tee-to-green strokes gained has shown gradual improvement recently.  He made it as far as the second of the FedEx playoff events at the back end of last season, so perhaps doesn’t deserve to be a three-figure price.  In common with Rai and Pereira his troubles can come around the green, but that’s where more volatile swings in form are most likely to occur.

It was very tempting to include at least one from the top of the market, but it was very hard to make a case that any offer standout value, so we’ll fire a few bullets at long shots and hope that we can get at least one of them into the places.  Of the market leaders, another win for Tom Kim wouldn’t surprise as he looks to be a great fit for this test, but I’d worry that last week’s win, with the media commitments and long journey afterwards may just leave him a little jaded (although being 20 years old should certainly help on that score).  We’ve cashed a few placed finishes on Sungjae Im recently and it would be typical if this is the week that he gets over the line, but prices of 12/1 don’t persuade me to go in again.  Perhaps the most appealing of those at shorter prices are Cameron Young, who will be fresher than most, and Si Woo Kim, whose form is trending very nicely at the moment.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout performed well last week despite an uncharacteristically cold putter and was also considered among the long shots at a fair price.

 

Not a week to dwell on for us as it was evident from a fairly early stage that none of our recommendations were likely to threaten the upper reaches of the leaderboard on Sunday.  We went with some more adventurous picks, but nonetheless it was a little disappointing that we couldn’t get at least one of them into some sort of contention.

While eventual winner Keegan Bradley could have been given some sort of chance on form, the leaderboard as a whole had a slightly lopsided look to it, so I’m not inclined to read a great deal into the result of that event.

Back to the regular US routine this week for the CJ Cup, which is a relief as I’m not a fan of the events that require the players to take on significant travel and jet lag in the days ahead of the tournament.  We intentionally kept staking fairly low key in anticipation of the possibility of an odd result.  It’ll also be nice not to have to get out of bed in (or stay awake until) the middle of the night to watch the action unfold.

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