The Tour Championship 2022
Overview
Dates: August 25, 2022 to August 28, 2022
Location: Georgia, USA
Course: East Lake Golf Club
Course Par: 70
Course Length: 7346 yards
Prize Purse: $58000000
Golf’s ultimate prize hangs in the balance as the PGA Tour season wraps up with the 30-man Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club. Scottie Scheffler, the four-time winner who led the FedEx Cup standings for much of the season, returned to the top spot with a T3 at the BMW Championship, while reigning FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay moved into the No. 2 spot with his successful title defence at the BMW. He would be the first back-to-back FedEx Cup winner.
Results
The 2021/2 season concluded with a fabulous win for Rory McIlroy, who recovered from a truly dreadful start to win the FedEx Cup and in the process shoot the lowest four-day score of anyone in the field. This was great news for FormGolfer followers, as we were on Rory at 15/2 to win the event without the starting handicaps.
Overall this translated to just a small profit on the week, although we had a couple of big-priced near misses, with Sepp Straka (tipped at 125/1) finishing 7th in the FedEx and Aaron Wise (50/1) just outside the places in the ‘without handicap’ market.
Ultimately this left FormGolfer with a profit of 302 points (38% ROI) at the end of our first PGA Tour season – a great result and one which we hope to build on as we continue to refine and improve our analysis into the new season.
Preview
The climax of the PGA Tour season takes place at East Lake this week, with a staggering $18m on offer to the winner. The handicapping system makes it an unusual puzzle to try to solve and in truth it reduces the appeal somewhat for wagering purposes. While there are markets available that disregard the staggered start, the fact is that the players who are leading or in contention in the non-handicapped version may not even be aware (or care) that they have a chance of winning that particular version of the tournament.
Scottie Scheffler starts as a warm favourite in light of his two-shot (or more) start over the rest of the field – an advantage that’s enhanced by Will Zalatoris having withdrawn due to injury (he was due to start from third place only three shots behind). While he should certainly be viewed as the most likely winner from that favourable position, on the balance of his recent form he looks a little vulnerable, so we’ll be looking elsewhere for the value.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Sam Burns | 3 | each way | 22/1 | 5 | +2200 |
| Tony Finau | 2 | each way | 20/1 | 5 | +2000 |
| Sepp Straka | 1 | each way | 125/1 | 5 | +15000 |
Sam Burns (3pts each way, 22/1, 5 places) starts with only three players above him, and while 5 shots may turn out to be too much to make up on Scheffler if the leader has a good week, odds of just over 4/1 to finish in the top 5 look very appealing. Having finished midfield in his first outing at Eastlake last year, he appears to be much more the finished article this season and can be fancied to improve on that performance this time around.
Tony Finau (2pts each way, 20/1, 5 places) is probably the hottest player on the planet right now and from a shot further back than Burns also looks good value to make the top 5 at least. But for an inexplicably bad round 1 at the BMW, Finau would have gone very close to winning that event, and his form has held up for over a month now. Significant improvement on the greens has been very encouraging to see and if that continues he can easily put pressure on the leaders here.
Finally, I can’t resist a small interest in Sepp Straka (1pt each way, 125/1, 5 places). Solid recent form has seen Straka surge up the FedEx standings to the extent that he starts at 4 under here, with only 4 players ahead of him. We know he’s streaky and when he’s off his game it can be horrible, but he can also hold his form, so he’s no forlorn hope to hold his position in the field at the very least and potentially even close the gap on those above him.
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Rory McIlroy | winner w/o h'cap | 3 | 15/2 | +750 |
| Tony Finau | winner w/o h'cap (each way, 5 places) | 3 | 16/1 | +1800 |
| Aaron Wise | winner w/o h'cap (each way, 5 places) | 2 | 50/1 | +4500 |
We’ll also have a few interests in the “winner without starting strokes” market. Considering Rory McIlroy (3pts win, 15/2) is only 10/1 to collect the FedEx Cup outright, starting from 6 shots back, he makes much more appeal at a slightly shorter price without having to concede shots.
For the reasons outlined above, Tony Finau (3pts each way, 16/1, 5 places) is also worth including in this market. And Aaron Wise (2pts each way, 50/1, 5 places) went very close to a nice return for us last week – having maintained his good form he makes a good bit of appeal at a similar price to last week in a much smaller field. Starting from ten shots back, ideally we’d want to see a good start from him to close ground on the leaders to make sure he keeps some level of interest in the event for as long as possible.
The 2021/2 season concluded with a fabulous win for Rory McIlroy, who recovered from a truly dreadful start to win the FedEx Cup and in the process shoot the lowest four-day score of anyone in the field. This was great news for FormGolfer followers, as we were on Rory at 15/2 to win the event without the starting handicaps.
Overall this translated to just a small profit on the week, although we had a couple of big-priced near misses, with Sepp Straka (tipped at 125/1) finishing 7th in the FedEx and Aaron Wise (50/1) just outside the places in the ‘without handicap’ market.
Ultimately this left FormGolfer with a profit of 302 points (38% ROI) at the end of our first PGA Tour season – a great result and one which we hope to build on as we continue to refine and improve our analysis into the new season.