The Sony Open in Hawaii
Overview
Dates: January 12, 2023 to January 15, 2023
Location: Hawaii, USA
Course: Waialae Country Club
Course Par: 70
Course Length: 7044
Prize Purse: $7900000
The tour stays in Hawaii following Jon Rahm’s dramatic win in the Tournament of Champions, but a very different field is faced with a very different test at Waialae Country Club, with tighter fairways and smaller greens making solid ball-striking a key requirement. After a couple of (very) near misses last week, we’ve been crunching the numbers again to find the value.
Results
We said last week that hopefully it wouldn’t be long before luck turned in our favour – thankfully we didn’t have to wait long. I’ll be honest I could barely watch the back 9 as Ben Taylor tried to secure a high enough finish for us to take home a tidy each way return, but he stepped up and converted a tricky 6-footer on 18 to finish fourth and net us a decent profit on the week, with the place part of the bet paying 35/1.
When you’re on a big-priced outsider, Sunday is fraught with danger as it tends to be unfamiliar territory and it’s so easy for shots to dribble away under pressure. Taylor touched as low as 6/1 to win the event around 11 holes into his final round, but the possibility of a full-on collapse and missing the top 8 was still uncomfortably plausible. Given that very little went right for him in yesterday, I was very happy to see him close out the last few holes in solid fashion.
At the other end of the spectrum, Tom Kim, our confident main selection, under-performed and surprisingly missed the cut. His putting numbers were truly horrific, but with his tee-to-green game evidently still in great shape, this looks like an anomaly and I expect him to return to regular contention sooner rather than later. KH Lee went well again but a horrible start to his final round put paid to his chances, eventually finishing a few shots out of the places. While our other selection Kurt Kitayama had a plodding week, finishing in the middle of the pack and never threatening anything better.
Overall we almost doubled our money on the week, recovering some of the ground lost through recent near-misses, and we’re just one decent result away from returning to profit on the season-to-date.
Preview
I had a tough time on Monday making peace with the outcome of the first event of 2023. Having finally given up and gone to bed with just a couple of holes left to play, I was convinced I’d be waking up to at least one and quite probably two of our four picks sitting in the top six and a nice little profit on the week. However both Fitzpatrick and KH Lee put together a couple of their worst holes of the week right at the very end and we were agonisingly left with both in a tie for 7th place. We weren’t far off the mark though and we’ll keep plugging away knowing that luck tends to even out soon enough.
We stay in Hawaii this week for the Sony Open and notably it’s a very different test. While Kapalua is wide open, with 400 yard drives the norm and some of the biggest greens on tour, Waialae is shorter, tighter and more of a plotting course. Greens in regulation is a key stat I’ll be looking for in the hunt for the winner as top ball-strikers are like to populate the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Tom Kim | 5 | each way | 11/1 | 8 | +1100 |
| KH Lee | 2 | each way | 33/1 | 8 | +4000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 1.5 | each way | 50/1 | 8 | +6000 |
| Ben Taylor | 1 | each way | 175/1 | 8 | +25000 |
We’ll start at the top of the market this week with Tom Kim (5pts each way, 11/1, 8 places), and a write up that could make me look very foolish in a few days’ time. I’ve read two other previews of this event, one of which concluded that Kim simply has to be included in the staking plan, the other couldn’t understand how he was topping the market. I’ll explain why I’m firmly in the former camp. Make no mistake, this kid is a superstar. He’s not just full of potential, he’s delivering results week-on-week and has already shown that down the stretch on Sunday holds no fears for him. Even when he said he was running on empty at the back end of 2022 his results were more than respectable. Despite his lack of experience (or opportunities to rack up ranking points), he is the highest ranked player in the field. I can hardly think of a venue that’d be less suited to him than Kapalua, it was his first time (and first-timers tend to struggle there) but he still managed a tie for 5th. This week’s test should be right up his alley (he tops the field on tee-to-green stats in the last 6 months) and he goes off at a double-figure price in a fairly weak field. I can see him going off at under 25/1 in this year’s majors. When you compare 11/1 for TK against 18/1 for Harman, 20/1 Matsuyama, there’s no question who I’d rather be on. Last week Rahm was clear favourite and had an obvious chance, but I won’t lose sleep over letting him win at 6/1. Sometimes the answer is both obvious and value; this feels like one of those times, so let’s get involved. I’ll be very surprised if he’s not placed at the very least. If you’ve not got the message, for the avoidance of doubt, I’m pretty sweet on him this week.
Having put up TK with such confidence it almost seems pointless trying to make a compelling case for others, but we’ll fire a few smaller bullets on players who could well be in contention come Sunday and may be a touch over-priced. KH Lee (2pts each way, 33/1, 8 places) went well for us last week at a huge price and having shown himself to be in decent nick can be fancied to give us another good run for our money.
Kurt Kitayama (1.5pts each way, 50/1, 8 places) is a little more speculative given we’ve not yet seen how he’s returned from the festive break, but on his late-2022 form he’d have more than a squeak of making the places. 5th in this field tee-to-green, this isn’t reflected in his price and I’m happy to take the chance that he carries forward his form.
Finally, I can’t resist a little play on Ben Taylor (1pt each way, 175/1, 8 places), who despite being relatively unheralded has shown some signs that he may not be the crazy longshot that his price suggests. 14th in the field tee-to-green, his last four tour outings have yielded a top 25 in the RSM and third at the Houston Open, and two cuts made prior to that. He’s not really been talked about much, and it’s very much the price that persuades me to recommend a small investment here; not a likely winner by any means, but at 35/1 to make the top 8, there’s plenty of potential upside to be had for fairly little risk.
Given the sizeable play on our main selection, we’ll leave it there this week. I was very tempted by the 33/1 on offer about Taylor Montgomery, but I feel there will be different tests ahead that are better suited to his game, so will reluctantly pass him over this time. Harris English was the other that came close to being included in the staking plan as further improvement can be expected on his return after injury. But our main focus this week will be cheering on golf’s newest superstar.
We said last week that hopefully it wouldn’t be long before luck turned in our favour – thankfully we didn’t have to wait long. I’ll be honest I could barely watch the back 9 as Ben Taylor tried to secure a high enough finish for us to take home a tidy each way return, but he stepped up and converted a tricky 6-footer on 18 to finish fourth and net us a decent profit on the week, with the place part of the bet paying 35/1.
When you’re on a big-priced outsider, Sunday is fraught with danger as it tends to be unfamiliar territory and it’s so easy for shots to dribble away under pressure. Taylor touched as low as 6/1 to win the event around 11 holes into his final round, but the possibility of a full-on collapse and missing the top 8 was still uncomfortably plausible. Given that very little went right for him in yesterday, I was very happy to see him close out the last few holes in solid fashion.
At the other end of the spectrum, Tom Kim, our confident main selection, under-performed and surprisingly missed the cut. His putting numbers were truly horrific, but with his tee-to-green game evidently still in great shape, this looks like an anomaly and I expect him to return to regular contention sooner rather than later. KH Lee went well again but a horrible start to his final round put paid to his chances, eventually finishing a few shots out of the places. While our other selection Kurt Kitayama had a plodding week, finishing in the middle of the pack and never threatening anything better.
Overall we almost doubled our money on the week, recovering some of the ground lost through recent near-misses, and we’re just one decent result away from returning to profit on the season-to-date.