Genesis Invitational 2022
Overview
Dates: February 17, 2022 to February 20, 2022
Location: California, USA
Course: The Riviera Country Club
Course Par: 71
Course Length: 7322 yards
Prize Purse: $12000000
Riviera Country Club is 7,322 Yards, Par 71, played on POA Annua greens. The course has 58 sand bunkers, 0 water hazards, and a 2″ Kikuyu rough. In the last few years, we’ve had Max Homa win it at -12 (2021), Adam Scott at -11 (2020), and J.B. Holmes at -14. As you can tell, this isn’t going to be just a regular birdie fest event. The fairways here are not very wide, and you’ll see a lot of tree-lined holes. Scrambling and around the green play is also a key area I will be looking at because of the small greens and the frequent misses that are inevitable. Greens in Regulation here is averaged out to 10/18, so it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Results
No point pretending otherwise, the Genesis was a disappointment. Having tried to keep some reliable putters onside, none of them performed on the greens. A quick look at the final leaderboard showed that this was indeed a key stat to get into contention – we just didn’t land on the right players. It was a strange week in this regard, with all of the top six posting great putting numbers that were out of kilter with what we have come to expect from them. Yet many of the typically reliable putters (such as Noren, Cantlay, Johnson, Smith, Tringale, Burns, Smith) went in the opposite direction. More than any other aspect of the game, putting stats can swing wildly, so we may just have to chalk this one up as a funny week.
In fact Cameron Tringale (T13) was the highest placed on the leaderboard with a negative SG putting, so it’s a real shame he didn’t have a slightly better week with the flat stick, as it would surely have been enough to secure us a nice each way payout and a small profit on the week.
While the outrights were a write-off, we roughly broke even on our other selections. Opposing Spieth was the right call, despite his hot start, and landed us a couple of nice match up wins. It was a shame that Cantlay failed to hold onto a four-shot lead over Rahm going into the final round, as this would have brought us close to breaking even, which all things considered would have been more than acceptable.
Despite a couple of losing weeks, we’re still running at 286 points profit (for 42% ROI) across all selections for the nine tournaments that we’ve been running our final testing phase. And our outright selections are showing an even healthier 133% ROI.
Preview
After a somewhat frustrating week for FormGolfer followers at the Phoenix, a super-strong field has been assembled for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, which should make for great viewing. As with last week, it’s a course specialist event with some clear patterns for us to focus on.
Perhaps the most interesting feature of previous years’ results is that, despite the penal Kikuya rough, it’s been possible to contend without gaining significantly off the tee. Fewer people have been able to reach the top 10 without a solid short game however, and this is where we’ll be focusing our attention – looking particularly closely at those who have gained consistently around the green and on the dance floor in recent months. Riviera is also renowned as favouring (right-handed) faders of the ball, so that’s a factor we’ve also taken into consideration, albeit it’s by no means the primary concern.
Outrights
| Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
| Dustin Johnson | 4 | ew | 16/1 | 8 | |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 2.5 | ew | 25/1 | 8 | |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 2 | ew | 28/1 | 8 | |
| Sam Burns | 2 | ew | 33/1 | 10 | |
| Cameron Tringale | 1.5 | ew | 80/1 | 8 | |
| Kevin Na | 1.5 | ew | 66/1 | 8 |
With such a strong field this week I’m going to focus attention more towards the front end of the market – I expect the cream to rise to the top and most of the places to be filled by some of the higher profile names.
We will lead off with Dustin Johnson (4pts ew, 16/1, 8 places). DJ has been slowly working his way back to form after the Xmas break and this venue is perfect for him to regain the winning thread. It’s not long ago that he looked almost invincible and while he does go through quiet periods, if we have timed it right he is simply too big a price on a course where his record stacks up against anyone else in the field. I’ll be pretty surprised if he doesn’t make the places at least.
Hideki Matsuyama (2.5pts ew, 25/1, 8 places) had another good week in Phoenix, making the top 10 without ever looking like winning, and at a bigger price this week I’m happy to include him again while he seems to be putting nicely.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (2pts ew, 28/1, 10 places) secured a T5 at the Genesis last year, is starting to look increasingly comfortable on the PGA Tour, while his straight driving and assured touch around the greens make him a very appealing proposition to contend again, albeit I’d ideally have liked a slightly bigger price.
Sam Burns (2 pts ew, 33/1, 8 places) looked the winner for most of last year’s event before fading slightly on the Sunday. At the time he had yet to secure his maiden victory, but having notched up a couple of wins since, if he finds himself in contention again, he would be a solid proposition to get the job done this time. At a similar price to last year’s winner Max Homa, who also makes some appeal, he gets the vote on value grounds, on the basis of being a more regular name on Sunday leaderboards.
Finally, we’ll have small stakes on Cameron Tringale (1.5pts ew, 80/1, 8 places) and Kevin Na (1.5pts ew, 66/1, 8 places). It’s only a couple of weeks since Tringale was being chalked up around 30/1 (in weaker events admittedly), but he has been in good touch for a while now, brings the short game and course form we are looking for, and a week off after his MC at Pebble may have resulted in his falling under the radar a little. Kevin Na has been underrated for some time in my eyes considering he is top-30 in the world rankings and perfectly able to get the job done when the course set up suits.
Plenty of others could easily have made the list. When Rory is available at 25/1, he has to be worth a second look, regardless of whether he is in form or not. As mentioned above, a repeat for Homa wouldn’t surprise, particularly on the back of a good showing at the Phoenix – while Bubba has to be considered purely as a 3-time previous winner, although he’s the same price as last week in a deeper field. Alex Noren ticks a lot of the boxes for this event and very nearly made the list as a third long shot, as did Mackenzie Hughes – we’ll have a little interest in those in the top 20 market. It can only be a matter of time before Sahith Theegala makes his breakthrough, but bouncing straight back from last week’s heartbreak will surely be a tough ask.
Match Ups
| Bet | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Hovland to beat Spieth (TNB) | 8 | 4/6 | |
| Scott to beat Spieth | 10 | 11/10 | |
| Henley to beat Casey (TNB) | 12 | 9/10 | |
| Cantlay to beat Rahm (TNB) | 8 | 11/10 | |
| Power to beat Gooch (TNB) | 6 | EVS |
Another loss on match ups last week – we were right to oppose Spieth (and I’m convinced there is mileage in continuing to do so), but wrong to do so with Hovland, who somehow managed to conjure up a triple bogey on a par 5 when he looked safe to make the weekend. Very happy to have another go on the same outcome though, at slightly better odds this time! We’re continuing to evolve our strategy here, so keeping a close watch on results.
Other Recommendations
| Player | Bet Type | Points | UK Odds | Outright US Odds |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | Top 20 | 5 | 15/8 | |
| Cameron Tringale | Top 20 | 2 | 3/1 | |
| Mackenzie Hughes | Top 20 | 4 | 9/2 | |
| Alex Noren | Top 20 | 2 | 3/1 | |
| Kevin Na | Top 20 | 3 | 11/4 |
No point pretending otherwise, the Genesis was a disappointment. Having tried to keep some reliable putters onside, none of them performed on the greens. A quick look at the final leaderboard showed that this was indeed a key stat to get into contention – we just didn’t land on the right players. It was a strange week in this regard, with all of the top six posting great putting numbers that were out of kilter with what we have come to expect from them. Yet many of the typically reliable putters (such as Noren, Cantlay, Johnson, Smith, Tringale, Burns, Smith) went in the opposite direction. More than any other aspect of the game, putting stats can swing wildly, so we may just have to chalk this one up as a funny week.
In fact Cameron Tringale (T13) was the highest placed on the leaderboard with a negative SG putting, so it’s a real shame he didn’t have a slightly better week with the flat stick, as it would surely have been enough to secure us a nice each way payout and a small profit on the week.
While the outrights were a write-off, we roughly broke even on our other selections. Opposing Spieth was the right call, despite his hot start, and landed us a couple of nice match up wins. It was a shame that Cantlay failed to hold onto a four-shot lead over Rahm going into the final round, as this would have brought us close to breaking even, which all things considered would have been more than acceptable.
Despite a couple of losing weeks, we’re still running at 286 points profit (for 42% ROI) across all selections for the nine tournaments that we’ve been running our final testing phase. And our outright selections are showing an even healthier 133% ROI.