Farmers Insurance Open
Overview
Dates: January 24, 2024 to January 28, 2024
Location: San Diego, California
Course: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7765
Prize Purse: $9000000
Torrey Pines certainly takes a bit of taming. The South course weighs in at around 7800 yards, while it’s little sister, although by some way the easier of the two, is no pushover either. The South has been used for majors in the past, but it’s important to remember that the course setup for the Farmers is significantly different, with a good deal less of a premium on accuracy from the tee. So much so, in fact that it’s notable that strokes gained off the tee is a poor predictor of success here – the ability to putt well on the notoriously tricky poa annua greens is of prime importance, with approach play and scrambling not far behind. Although we’ve not paid too much attention to SG off the tee, there’s no doubt that a bit of distance certainly helps, particularly when it comes to the South course, where three of the four rounds will be played.
Preview
The West Coast swing heads for San Diego and the Farmers Insurance Open, which takes place across the North and South courses at Torrey Pines. After Nick Dunlap dramatically became the first amateur in 30 years to win a PGA Tour event at the American Express, continuing the early-season trend of surprising winners, we’ll be looking right through the field to identify the value. This event has been good to us in the past, with Max Homa’s victory last year following up our 2022 success where we picked both winner Luke List and runner up Will Zalatoris.
Outrights
Player | Points | Type | UK Odds | Places | Outright US Odds |
Sahith Theegala | 3.5 | Each Way | 33/1 | 8 | +3300 |
Nicolai Hojgaard | 2.5 | Each Way | 40/1 | 10 | +4000 |
Sepp Straka | 3 | Each Way | 33/1 | 8 | +3300 |
Daniel Berger | 1.5 | Each Way | 66/1 | 8 | +6600 |
Harris English | 2 | Each Way | 40/1 | 8 | +4500 |
Top of our list is Sahith Theegala (3.5pts each way, 33/1, 8 places), who finished hot on the heels of Max Homa in a tie for 4th in this event last year, is long off the tee, and has been posting some solid putting and approach numbers of late. His missed cut in the Sony Open is readily forgiven, since the tight nature of that track wouldn’t have suited him at all; his strong showing in the season-opening Sentry is a far better indicator of his prospects this week. In the top ten in this field on world ranking and total strokes gained over the last six months, he deserves a touch more respect than he’s being given in the market.
Next up is Nicolai Hojgaard (2.5pts each way, 45/1, 8 places), who has been in super form on the DP World Tour for some time, which saw him secure a place on the victorious European Ryder Cup side. Not only is he a monster off the tee, much like Theegala his approach play and putting have been in solid nick and provided the long trip over from Dubai hasn’t taken too much out of him, another good week for the Dane can be expected.
Another Ryder Cup star on our radar this week is Sepp Straka (3pts each way, 33/1, 10 places), who hasn’t been out of the top 25 in his last five tournaments – a level of consistency that was sorely lacking earlier in his career and has seen him rise into the world’s top 20. Another who makes his ground on approach and on the greens, there’s every reason to expect another strong showing here, and he’s shown before that he can get the job done when in contention over the weekend.
Daniel Berger (1.5pts each way, 66/1, 8 places) certainly surprised us with his performance on his return from a long injury break, but when you look at the numbers he posted it was even more remarkable and gives hope that there may be scope for further improvement. His long game stood up against anyone else in the field in the AmEx, but on and around the greens he conceded a lot of ground in a tournament that turned into a putting shoot out. A little short game rust was perfectly understandable and provided he shows no physical effects from his first competitive outing in so long, the available price may look very big indeed come the weekend. We know he’s not the best closer in the world, so perhaps a victory is too much to hope for, but the odds make it a chance worth taking.
We were on Harris English (2pts each way, 40/1, 8 places) in the Sony Open, and he only narrowly missed out on landing with place part of the bet, finishing in a tie for 10th. That was his fourth consecutive top 30 finish, and he’s another who fits our ideal statistical profile very nicely. We’ll happily give him another chance on the staking plan.
There are a host of other likely contenders. It was hard to leave Max Homa out given his course record, consistent West Coast success and general form over the last 12 months. But we’re being asked to take 10/1 this year as opposed to 25/1 in 2023, so while he may very well go in again he’s passed over on value grounds. Likewise Ludvig Aberg, whose imperious driving ought to give him a head start on most of this field, but perhaps Torrey Pines set up for majors would suit him even better. Any of Morikawa, Schauffele or Cantlay could easily win and all are very likely to contend, but none of them are regular enough winners to make them at all appealing at around the 10/1 mark. The course form of Tony Finau and Jason Day makes them of obvious interest, but it’s hard to make the case that they represent any value. Of those at bigger prices, Adrian Meronk, Chesson Hadley and Beau Hossler came closest to making the final picks and all are worthy of consideration.