The American Express Championship 2026
Overview
Dates: January 22, 2026 to January 25, 2026
Location: La Quinta, CA • USA
Course: Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club & The Nicklaus Tournament Course
Course Par: 72
Course Length: 7210, 7060, 7147
Prize Purse: $9199999.96
After a promising start, the opening event of the 2026 season was ultimately a
disappointment. Nick Taylor led the charge from our five picks, tying for the lead after
round 1 but failing to build on that and eventually finishing just inside the top 15, a
couple of shots short of recovering a good proportion of our outlay. JJ Spaun had a
quiet week, while Matt McCarty never really got into contention despite making the
cut. The winner, Chris Gotterup, wasted no time proving that his stellar 2025 was not
a mere flash-in-the-pan and it’ll be interesting to see whether he progresses further.
We quickly regroup and move on to the American Express, where world number 1
Scottie Scheffler starts out his season. Unsurprisingly he takes out a good chunk of
the market at around +300; if we knew he was ready to roll and continue his form of
the second half of 2025, this would be an appealing proposition against this field, but
it took him a while to get going last year, so we’ll be taking advantage of some huge
prices on offer about some less-obvious picks. If you’re feeling less adventurous, you
may want to play in the “without Scheffler” markets to insure yourself against him
blowing this field apart, which is of course entirely possible.
It has been a well-established trend that the winner of the Sony had often taken part
in the season-opening Sentry, so with this year’s opener having been cancelled, it
seems reasonable to expect that we should be looking primarily at players who have
already had a competitive outing. Five of our six picks fit that profile, having finished
in the Top 40 at Waialaie.
Headlining our selections is Si Woo Kim (2.5pts win, +5000, 2.5pts top 5 +1000).
For a number of months, Si Woo’s tee-to-green game has been up there with the
very best on tour, but his results have been severely compromised by an ice-cold
putter. This continued in Hawaii, with a T11 finished characterised by exemplary long
game, offset by a horror show on the greens. We’re taking a punt here that he has a
better week with the putter, but that club can come good at any time and with even
an average week compared to the rest of the field, he has the game to go very close
to winning. The price dictates that we have to take that chance.
Preview
A birdie‑fest in the California desert is back, and The American Express once again opens the West Coast Swing with its unique three‑course rotation and pro‑am format. With low scoring almost guaranteed and a history of surprise winners, this event always delivers volatility and drama.
🌵 Course Characteristics
The American Express is played across three courses for the first three rounds, with the final round returning to the Pete Dye Stadium Course.
1. PGA West – Pete Dye Stadium Course (Final‑round host)
Par: 72
Yardage: ~7,210 yards
Designer: Pete Dye
Traits:
Penal water hazards and deep bunkering
Narrow landing areas
Elevated greens with run‑offs
One of the tougher Dye designs, though still scoreable in calm conditions
2. Nicklaus Tournament Course
Par: 72
Yardage: ~7,147 yards
Traits:
Wide fairways
Receptive greens
Encourages aggressive play
Often yields some of the lowest scores of the week
3. La Quinta Country Club
Par: 72
Yardage: ~7,060 yards
Traits:
Classic, tree‑lined layout
Easiest of the three courses
Historically produces the lowest scoring averages
Overall Event Style
Format: Pro‑am for the first three rounds
Scoring: Extremely low — winning scores often reach −23 or better
Key Skills:
Wedge play
Birdie conversion
Comfort in a pro‑am environment
Ability to go low on all three courses
Detailed pick analysis:
Ryan Gerard (1.5pts win, +8000, 1.5pts top 5, +1600) has a similar profile to Si Woo
in that his putter has been preventing him from a stronger set of results of late.
However it was encouraging to note that with a marginally positive strokes gained
number on the greens in Hawaii, this was enough to secure him a second place
finish, giving us hope that he may have turned a corner in this regard. Any further
improvement could see his price look very generous indeed come Sunday.
Kevin Roy (1pt win, +15000, 1pt top 5, +2800) in contrast has posted some decent
numbers with the putter, but been let down somewhat on approach and around the
greens. He’s a more speculative inclusion on the staking plan, but a top 15 last week
coupled with a top 20 in this event last year gives some hope that he has a better
chance than many of those at similarly big odds. Bigger prices are available at the
time of writing, so snap those up if you can, but 150/1 is readily available.
Alex Smalley (1.5pts win +10000, 1.5pts top 5, +1700) has competed in four AmEx
events, made the cut each time and finished inside the top 25 on each occasion.
That stat alone makes him of obvious interest. He cashed with three top 5s from 28
outings last season and this looks to be one of his best opportunities to secure
another. It might be fanciful to think he can beat the likes of Scheffler, but having had
a solid enough week in Hawaii to freshen him up, this could be the time to do it. He
putted fairly poorly for large parts of last season, so it was encouraging to see him in
positive territory last week. The fact he started 2025 with six top 25s from his first
seven events suggests he’s maybe one to catch in the early part of the season.
Our final pick from those who participated in the Sony is Bud Cauley to small stakes
(1pt win, +20000, 1pt top 5, +3300). All parts of his game were in decent working
order, gaining ground on the field in all categories en route to a respectable T24
finish. Considering he made 17/22 cuts last year and had three top 5 finishes, the
market seems to have written him off somewhat and his tournament record of 6 cuts
in 8 with four top 25s adds weight to the view that he is overpriced.
Finally, we’ll include one guy who’s yet to taste competitive golf in 2026 and take a
punt on Rickie Fowler (2pts win, +6600, 2pts top 5, +1100). Rickie finished 2025
with some of his best golf of the year in the shape of top 10s at both the FedEx St
Jude and the BMW Championship, giving hope that 2026 may just be a year when
he continues his return from the wilderness. We know that much of the last six years
or so has been a struggle, but we also know he has enough innate ability to compete
with the very best. This early in the season and at 66/1, he’s an outsider we’re happy
to have on our side.
Outrights
Ryan Gerard (1.5pts win, +8000, 1.5pts top 5, +1600) has a similar profile to Si Woo
in that his putter has been preventing him from a stronger set of results of late.
However it was encouraging to note that with a marginally positive strokes gained
number on the greens in Hawaii, this was enough to secure him a second place
finish, giving us hope that he may have turned a corner in this regard. Any further
improvement could see his price look very generous indeed come Sunday.
Kevin Roy (1pt win, +15000, 1pt top 5, +2800) in contrast has posted some decent
numbers with the putter, but been let down somewhat on approach and around the
greens. He’s a more speculative inclusion on the staking plan, but a top 15 last week
coupled with a top 20 in this event last year gives some hope that he has a better
chance than many of those at similarly big odds. Bigger prices are available at the
time of writing, so snap those up if you can, but 150/1 is readily available.
Alex Smalley (1.5pts win +10000, 1.5pts top 5, +1700) has competed in four AmEx
events, made the cut each time and finished inside the top 25 on each occasion.
That stat alone makes him of obvious interest. He cashed with three top 5s from 28
outings last season and this looks to be one of his best opportunities to secure
another. It might be fanciful to think he can beat the likes of Scheffler, but having had
a solid enough week in Hawaii to freshen him up, this could be the time to do it. He
putted fairly poorly for large parts of last season, so it was encouraging to see him in
positive territory last week. The fact he started 2025 with six top 25s from his first
seven events suggests he’s maybe one to catch in the early part of the season.
Our final pick from those who participated in the Sony is Bud Cauley to small stakes
(1pt win, +20000, 1pt top 5, +3300). All parts of his game were in decent working
order, gaining ground on the field in all categories en route to a respectable T24
finish. Considering he made 17/22 cuts last year and had three top 5 finishes, the
market seems to have written him off somewhat and his tournament record of 6 cuts
in 8 with four top 25s adds weight to the view that he is overpriced.
Finally, we’ll include one guy who’s yet to taste competitive golf in 2026 and take a
punt on Rickie Fowler (2pts win, +6600, 2pts top 5, +1100). Rickie finished 2025
with some of his best golf of the year in the shape of top 10s at both the FedEx St
Jude and the BMW Championship, giving hope that 2026 may just be a year when
he continues his return from the wilderness. We know that much of the last six years
or so has been a struggle, but we also know he has enough innate ability to compete
with the very best. This early in the season and at 66/1, he’s an outsider we’re happy
to have on our side.
Si Woo Kim 2.5 Units WIN +5000 2.5 Units TOP 5, +1000, UK Odds 35/1 EW
Ryan Gerard 1.5 Units WIN +8000, 1.5 Units TOP 5, +1600, UK Odds 66/1 EW
Kevin Roy 1 Unit WIN +15000, 1 Unit TOP 5, +2800, UK Odds 200/1 EW
Alex Smalley 1.5 Units WIN +10000, 1.5 Units TOP 5, +1700, UK Odds 110/1 EW
Bud Cauley 1 Unit WIN +20000, 1 Unit Top 5, +3300, UK Odds 150/1 EW
Rickie Fowler 2 Units WIN +6600, 2 Units TOP 5, +1100, UK Odds 80/1 EW